To be fair, we are not as far progressed as they are on the course of the virus.

Our fatality rate has grown from about 2% when I last posted about a week and a half ago to 3.9%. France went from 4% to 10.9% now, over that span. But for Europe as a whole, it's 8.7%. If in another ~10 days we're below 8.7%, then we're in a better place. I think we're on the right pace, but time will tell.

The thing is that different states of the US are on very different points of the curve. In NY, the curve will soon abate while it hasnt even started yet in places like Florida or Texas. It also remains to be seen what happens in dense urban areas like SF or LA once the strict lockdowns are loosened - which they have to be at some point.

I don't think places like Texas will contribute much to the per capita total. Texas is really big. Social distancing is the norm, there. Texas is 1000 miles across at the widest point.



/e https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This post was edited by Ghot on Apr 12 2020 04:41pm

Save this post for review on April 22nd.

That's only ten days from now. You have insider information?













This post was edited by Ghot on Apr 12 2020 04:47pm

I've been watching the growth in the fatality rate for over a month. It has been growing everywhere. There are shortcomings due to how widespread testing is or isn't, but the trends are pretty straightforward.

look at active cases #'s

Yeah, I know. This is one reason I said about a month ago... the only reasonable metric is deaths/population. All other numbers get so large as to be meaningless.





Sorted by deaths per 1m population...



This post was edited by Ghot on Apr 12 2020 05:07pm

Texas has 3 of the top 10 largest cities in the country...

Rural areas should be fine but that's only 15% of Texas.

People really undererstimate how urbanized Texas has become. They think it's still mostly ranches and cowboys...