Quote (Meanwhile @ 9 Mar 2022 19:58)
- Russia won’t be able to occupy Ukraine ( same than below)
- Russia won’t be able to demilitarize Ukraine (So true, it's size of France + West Germany...)
- Russia won’t be able to weaken NATO (discussable, because a strong change in Russia can question NATO treaty)
- Russia won’t be able to divide the European Union (United it even more)
- Russia is getting its economy destroyed by sanctions (to be confirmed)
Let’s make a checkpoint here - 26th of November 2023 and get back here in 2024.
- Russia occupied what they set out to occupy (Crimea, Donbass).
- Ukraine is has lost almost all accumulated Soviet weaponry and is burning through NATO deliveries at an alarming pace. Funnily enough this is not how Russians defined demilitarization. Demilitarization will only be achieved once and if a neutrality agreement is signed.
- Russians never claimed they can defeat NATO outright I’m not sure this can be achieved unless a major splinter occurs (eg NATO throwing Turkey under the bus and Turkey leaves NATO or US suffers collapse which is also extremely unrealistic). Having said a ceasefire with a neutrality agreement will definitely be a setback for NATO eastward expansion plans.
- EU seems to be less cohesive than expected. The more this drags on the more nationalism will rise among individual countries with people demanding answers for their deteriorating standards of living.
- It seems all experts agree that sanctions were not able to “destroy” economy of Russia yet. Yes some industries have had a setback and long-term perspectives are unclear, but the effect will take decades to set in which Ukraine might not have. The collective West has implemented a set of extremely bizzare sanctions actually helping unite Russia around current leadership while continuing to pay for Russias exports directly or indirectly (through third party blending/processing countries).