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#361
Mar 5 2020 01:30am
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#362
Mar 5 2020 02:08am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 5 Mar 2020 08:00)
Trump most likely is right though, at least technically. Since the big majority of infections lead to no or only very mild symptoms, it is safe to assume that there are tons of unknown/unregistered cases. Therefore, if the mortality rate among the registered cases stands at 3.x%, the true mortality rate of the disease should indeed be below 1%.


because unknown / unregistered cases can't die, right. that's great news, just don't see a doctor then and you're safe. also, the experts clearly didn't think of that, and just picked the higher number to create a panic, trying to hurt trump's reelection chances. now everything makes sense, thanks for clarifying...

holy shit, you people literally believe your idiot emperor over the experts on this issue, and you wonder why it's called a cult. un-fucking-believable...
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#363
Mar 5 2020 02:25am
Quote (fender @ Mar 5 2020 09:08am)
because unknown / unregistered cases can't die, right. that's great news, just don't see a doctor then and you're safe. also, the experts clearly didn't think of that, and just picked the higher number to create a panic, trying to hurt trump's reelection chances. now everything makes sense, thanks for clarifying...

holy shit, you people literally believe your idiot emperor over the experts on this issue, and you wonder why it's called a cult. un-fucking-believable...


Like you idiots follow emperor merkel when she says wir schaffen das? When the experts warn that opening the flood gates will act like a magnet on people from all directions including fortune seekers and what have you? Nice leftist cult you guys are running there...
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#364
Mar 5 2020 02:27am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 5 2020 01:00am)
Trump most likely is right though, at least technically. Since the big majority of infections lead to no or only very mild symptoms, it is safe to assume that there are tons of unknown/unregistered cases. Therefore, if the mortality rate among the registered cases stands at 3.x%, the true mortality rate of the disease should indeed be below 1%.


'Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital'
China is massively underreporting its infected, pretty much only testing symptomatic people, resulting in extremely low rates of asymptomatic cases and high death rates. South Korea is testing everyone it can vigilantly and thus has higher infection rates but far lower death rates. China reporting 20% of new cases vs south korea despite having 2700% the population and being the epicenter of the disease is a crock of shit. And the Diamond Princess is our best cohort to see the effects of the disease: 3711 passengers, 705 tested positive, only half were symptomatic, 6 died who were all aged 70+. Coupled with the reported death rates in china and south korea being massively lopsided towards the elderly / immunocompromised we can pretty safely conclude;

  • the death rate is nowhere near 3.4%, it could be higher or lower than 1%, which is still far more than a regular flu
  • the death rates among health young people is not only extremely low, but also most carriers are asymptomatic
  • the death rates are far higher among the elderly/immunocompromised, an excess above normal mortality rates


If people go around screaming its a 3.4% death rate and its going to destroy society worse than the 1918 flu, that's dangerous misinformation that will risk panics. If people understand that the real risk is to the vulnerable populations and healthy people will most likely not even know they're spreading it, that can help people respond and coordinate responses and prioritize who they're protecting.
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#365
Mar 5 2020 03:12am
Quote (Goomshill @ 5 Mar 2020 09:27)
'Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital'
China is massively underreporting its infected, pretty much only testing symptomatic people, resulting in extremely low rates of asymptomatic cases and high death rates. South Korea is testing everyone it can vigilantly and thus has higher infection rates but far lower death rates. China reporting 20% of new cases vs south korea despite having 2700% the population and being the epicenter of the disease is a crock of shit. And the Diamond Princess is our best cohort to see the effects of the disease: 3711 passengers, 705 tested positive, only half were symptomatic, 6 died who were all aged 70+. Coupled with the reported death rates in china and south korea being massively lopsided towards the elderly / immunocompromised we can pretty safely conclude;

  • the death rate is nowhere near 3.4%, it could be higher or lower than 1%, which is still far more than a regular flu
  • the death rates among health young people is not only extremely low, but also most carriers are asymptomatic
  • the death rates are far higher among the elderly/immunocompromised, an excess above normal mortality rates


If people go around screaming its a 3.4% death rate and its going to destroy society worse than the 1918 flu, that's dangerous misinformation that will risk panics. If people understand that the real risk is to the vulnerable populations and healthy people will most likely not even know they're spreading it, that can help people respond and coordinate responses and prioritize who they're protecting.


literally no one says or even suggests that though, so stop strawmanning, you pathetic hack.

you're mad that your cult leader gets called out for repeatedly lying to americans, and especially his idiot followers who believe everything he says, even though it's directly contradicting established facts and expert opinions - but that doesn't mean this is some kind of global conspiracy against trump. it just means that he is a shitty and dangerous president for doing that, and for once in his life should keep his creepy orange fish mouth shut, because this time it's not just some vain lie about crowd sizes or electoral college margins, but a potential pandemic that he lies about because he thinks it serves his purpose. do you really think this is an appropriate topic for your propaganda and political spins? you people are truly deplorable...
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#366
Mar 5 2020 06:28am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 5 Mar 2020 08:00)
Trump most likely is right though, at least technically. Since the big majority of infections lead to no or only very mild symptoms, it is safe to assume that there are tons of unknown/unregistered cases. Therefore, if the mortality rate among the registered cases stands at 3.x%, the true mortality rate of the disease should indeed be below 1%.


We don't know yet, seem we even have to add a cycle of re-infection ? Oh all the people who don't have a decent healthcare on this planet ... But your stance is probably to only calculate it for people getting optimal care.
I think the worse side is permanent damage to lungs. Like war: crippled ones. Goal for everyone is to contain the disease as much as possible to avoid an overflow of care capacity. This means mass quarantines at some point.

Quote (Goomshill @ 5 Mar 2020 09:27)
If people go around screaming its a 3.4% death rate and its going to destroy society worse than the 1918 flu, that's dangerous misinformation that will risk panics. If people understand that the real risk is to the vulnerable populations and healthy people will most likely not even know they're spreading it, that can help people respond and coordinate responses and prioritize who they're protecting.


- We are no longer in 1918 and we are not at war, global pandemic would have a very devastating impact on our society which is much more sensitive to -anything-
- Even in 2020 we still need 20 months to develop a vaccine.
- Bad mutation is an horrible risk. One happened in 1918 btw, in US.
- Influenza & Carvorivorus are different intrinsically, like in their way to mutate or to destroy cells etc...

Bold part:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRmo6R2WN0Y

We are in great shape.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Mar 5 2020 06:29am
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#367
Mar 5 2020 06:36am
I hope you're all taking the necessary precautions, like this one, in order to stop the spread:

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#368
Mar 5 2020 06:39am
Quote (zarkadon @ 5 Mar 2020 13:36)
I hope you're all taking the necessary precautions, like this one, in order to stop the spread:

https://finofilipino.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/werfwerlo.jpg


No french kissing? :(
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#369
Mar 5 2020 10:51am
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#370
Mar 5 2020 11:05am
Quote (fender @ Mar 5 2020 03:12am)
literally no one says or even suggests that though, so stop strawmanning, you pathetic hack.

you're mad that your cult leader gets called out for repeatedly lying to americans, and especially his idiot followers who believe everything he says, even though it's directly contradicting established facts and expert opinions - but that doesn't mean this is some kind of global conspiracy against trump. it just means that he is a shitty and dangerous president for doing that, and for once in his life should keep his creepy orange fish mouth shut, because this time it's not just some vain lie about crowd sizes or electoral college margins, but a potential pandemic that he lies about because he thinks it serves his purpose. do you really think this is an appropriate topic for your propaganda and political spins? you people are truly deplorable...


Going off the Diamond Princess numbers, out of a population of 320,000,000 in the US, roughly 60,000,000 people could become infected, which beats out the common influenza strains in a given year, and if it kills 1% of the people it infects, 6 million people could die.
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