Quote (thesnipa @ Oct 3 2023 02:46pm)
imo the dems are a loss at POTUS away from their own identity crisis. its easy to feel comfortable when you've had 3 out of the last 4 presidencies. people may start asking some hard hitting questions about the direction of the party if there is a loss, as compared to 2016 when those questions were drowned out by RUSSIA.
on the flip side the GOP has avoided some of those same questions by a noteworthy percent of their voter base crying foul for the loss.
but i dont think the DNC can be the anti-MAGA, anti-FACISM, etc party forever. its one thing to have ideals (universal healthcare, free college, anti corporation, etc) but the left needs a big win, imo. like Obamacare level big win. and i dont know what front that comes in.
I don't know where it goes after, but currently literally everything is on Biden's side for a win in 2024. Unless something big changes it's going to be pretty clear. The reasons I think that are as follows:
Trump has only shrunk his base of support among independents.
Biden has sured up some support in student loans and unions.
Gen Z is masively rallied by abortion as an issue and the promise of student loan relief.
Dems have overperformed in something like 24/30 special elections since the last midterm.
Current polling averages have Biden at equal or slightly beating Trump nationally, meanwhile Trump is in an active campaign and Biden isn't.
Biden is over-performing in virtually all battleground states on top of that slight national average.
Trump is overwhelmingly likely to be convicted (rightfully so, I might add) of several of his charges, and when asked if that happens independents go from a +2 Biden to a +6 Biden.
The election is pretty far out, but as it stands Biden is in an extremely strong position. And not like, Hillary Clinton strong, because Trump is not a wild card anymore. In 2016 Trump overperformed because a lot of voters thought "Trump probably won't change anything, but Hillary DEFINITELY won't, so I'll go Trump". In a fight where you know for a fact neither candidate will massively reorganize the system, then the safe candidate wins. Which is Biden.
Now going after 2024.... I have no fucking clue. Long-term candidates like Biden and Clinton have choked out a lot of the young life in the Democrat party. The machine has pushed geriatrics to the forefront and pushed down anybody who wants to fundamentally change things. So there really is a big hole waiting to be filled by new talent, and I don't know if it will be.
This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Oct 3 2023 01:53pm