Quote (Black XistenZ @ 22 Mar 2019 21:55)
Interesting, but are the three right-wing parties really split as much in every district? Or are their national percentages just split on the national level, but coming from non-overlapping regional strongholds?
For example, I've heard that VOX is very strong in Andalusia.
The split varies in different districts. VOX is strongest in rural areas and big cities with a strong unionist sentiment (Madrid and Valencia). C's is strongest in urban areas over all. PP is strongest in rural areas (more so than VOX, due to PP having an already more established voter base there).
VOX and C's are almost nonexistent in Navarra and Euskadi, due to their stance against the medieval privileges the regions have, which allow them to have their own taxing and financial system. They're also weak in Galicia, where PP is absurdly strong (they have a comfortable absolute majority in the regional parliament.. the only one out of the 17 regional parliaments where a party has an absolute majority). Meanwhile, PP is pretty much dead in Catalonia, where unionists felt betrayed by Rajoy's lack of actions during the separatist crisis... and that sentiment hasn't changed with Casado, who despite being much more aggressive than Rajoy, is an overall awful candidate.
It's hard to say right now, as I'm sure that voting dynamics will change over the next month, but it's likely that C's finishes ahead in some constituencies, while PP will do so in others (I doubt that VOX will beat both C's and PP in any, but they will likely beat one of them in several constituencies).
The main issue for these parties is that they will likely earn at least 10% in almost every single constituency... but in most constituencies (3-6 seats), you are unlikely to get a seat if you don't get around 13-19% of the votes (the threshold varies depending on the seats assigned to the constituency, as well as the results of the other parties, due to how the D'Hondt system works)... and it's unlikely that all 3 anti-Sánchez parties will be able to reach that threshold consistently. This is why PP is so far centering its campaign around them being the party of the "utility vote", and going as far as asking C's and VOX to not run in the smaller constituencies.