Quote (vildmeddans @ 7 Nov 2020 00:08)
How can it be Wisconsin?
If you line up all the states by Biden's winning margin, from highest to lowest, and add up their electoral votes along the way, the tipping point state is the one that gets him across 270 electoral votes. Think of 538's snake chart.
Given the number of outstanding votes in Pennsylvania (112k) and where they are coming from (mostly Philly), it's easy to see that Biden will win PA by more than 0.6% in the end, which is his current margin in Wisconsin. Similarly, it's easy to see that Arizona will end up really close when the outstanding and moderately Trump-leaning votes (226k left) are counted.
You end up with this map:

Note that Biden would lose the contingent election in the House if the race ended at a 269-269 tie, so he indeed needs either Wisconsin or Arizona to get over the finish line. The narrative is flipped because Wisconsin was called so early while Pennsylvania takes forever, but going by what will be the final margins, the tipping point is gonna be WI or AZ.
tldr: the tipping point state is defined by the order of the states' final margins, not by the order in which they were finished counting.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 6 2020 05:18pm