Quote (bogie160 @ Feb 19 2022 09:58pm)
What does the West gain from implementing anti-Russian sanctions? Those sanctions are so desirable in the first place because the EU/NATO wants to neutralize Russia's geopolitical impact. Giving the Russians Ukraine in exchange for sanctions is not a trade anyone is going to be ecstatic about.
I read the Aljazeera article; my opinion on Aljazeera is that they present probably the least biased view on international events. I'm not approaching this from an anti-Russian perspective, but we have to be sure that we don't fall into the opposite trap. Russia is far more likely to conduct a false flag operation, because they possess greater means by which to do so. An authoritarian regime and media control has its benefits. The benefit Russia gains is clear. Losing Ukraine isolates Russia in Europe. 9 million Belarussians are all that remains between Putin and NATO. And the regime needs to try all that much harder to explain why Russian authoritarianism is necessary as compared against an increasingly prosperous West. With Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan under Russian control, Russia begins to represent a legitimate geopolitical power center that can sit at the table with the EU, China, and the United States. The benefit the United States gains is not so clear. They'd much rather have Ukraine aligned with NATO than under Russia's thumb. Starting a conflict in the Ukraine guarantees that Ukraine will fall under Russia's thumb. With that in mind, for Putin, the time to act is now. The longer he delays, the less influence over Ukraine he'll have. He needs to bring them back into orbit now, or lose them forever. He might be content with a legitimate power sharing agreement (re Donbass) that prevents Ukraine from breaking West, but Ukraine is unlikely to accept that for obvious reasons. If the option is only between war or losing Ukraine, war is probably the better choice.
Ukraine, like many others soviet USSR states were always under the Russian sphere of influence, so they aren't really gaining anything but rather not losing them. The Russians were okay with giving up the Baltic states because 1. they're tiny 2. culturally and ethnically they're not Slavs. Ukraine is the line in the sand for them because like I said it's the equivalent of Scotland or Wales for England.
I don't want to say the west but rather use NATO. NATO actually has a lot to gain and a lot to lose based on how everything shakes out. If Russia in 5-10 years is supplying half of Europe with energy it means 1. Europe is highly dependent on Russia and 2. When economies becomes so tied together monetarily it's extremely costly to try to create some sort of breakup, which gives Russia massive leverage. The US stands to lose geopolitical influence over kingpin countries like Germany if Germany becomes intertwined with Russia. If we lose Germany, we lose all of Europe as they basically run the EU. That's why that pipeline is such a massive deal.
Secondly, it threatens NATO itself. If Russia is all of the sudden friendly, and economically cooperative with Germany and some of the bigger EU states, that means after awhile the Euros can start looking at NATO as obsolete and a waste of resources. I mean, think about it, why would you contribute 2% of your GDP to something when the sole existence of the alliance was to counter a country (USSR/Russia) that now is a good trading partner who doesn't want war but is enjoying the economic benefits of free trade? What do you think happens to our defense budget? What do you think happens to alphabet agencies that basically get free checks every year, and so on?
Drawing them into a massive war is actually a win for us because 1. it would break up that EU-Russia economic relationship 2. justify NATO's existence (and spending) 3. We would force a historical geopolitical enemy to exhaust themselves in a massive war in Ukraine, making them much weaker, which realistically could lead to them lose control internally
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 19 2022 10:03pm