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Feb 19 2022 08:25pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Feb 19 2022 09:11pm)
Ukraine decision makers won't give the order without outside blessing, and they don't have outside blessing. It's one thing to support an offensive when you have some expectation of support and/or success. It's quite another to do with zero expectation of support, and at a time where there's an especially nonexistent chance of success.

A false flag by NATO results in a Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine. Ukraine is lost permanently to the Russian orbit. The United States gains in terms of placing sanctions they could simply place anyway, and by disrupting Russian pipelines. That's it.

Russia is facing a situation where they lose Ukraine permanently to the West. There's an increasingly small number of countries they control, and fewer places with which to hide the regime's obvious inadequacies.


That was kind of why I highlighted the things I've said. The Ukrainians hawks (which are backed by NATO hawks) know fully well they have little to no chance of actually retaking the Donbass region. So the move isn't really a false flag but it's aggression to just draw Russia into some retribution. By doing so the picture of Russia being the bigger invasive villain is complete and all of the sudden much stronger and crippling non military measures are justified against Russia.

I linked an article from Aljazeera awhile back, try to read it if you haven't, I think it's one of the better analyses I've read so far on this situation coming from someone that at least on face value feels impartial.

But for someone that's familiar with the area, the culture, etc this situation is so fucked to me and it's sad that it has gotten to this point. It's the equivalent of the US going to war with Canada or UK going to war with Scotland. These people are very close ethnically, almost all Ukrainians are fluent in Russian and their cultures as so close to each other. The ancient capital of Russia was actually Kiev, and the modern western Russian is much more closer to Ukrainians ethnically than for example far east Russians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 19 2022 08:35pm
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Feb 19 2022 08:42pm
Quote (SanduLungu @ Feb 19 2022 06:40pm)
things that never happened.


Right - all the tens of thousands of people that were slaughtered by the Ukrainian army, all the villages wiped off the map, all the hundreds of thousands of refugees that fled to Europe and Russia in 2014-2015...

According to you, never happened.

You may as well as be a holocaust denier. It's about the same level of stupidity.
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Feb 19 2022 08:53pm
Quote (chopstickz777 @ Feb 19 2022 06:42pm)
Right - all the tens of thousands of people that were slaughtered by the Ukrainian army, all the villages wiped off the map, all the hundreds of thousands of refugees that fled to Europe and Russia in 2014-2015...

According to you, never happened.

You may as well as be a holocaust denier. It's about the same level of stupidity.


You're literally just making shit up lol
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Feb 19 2022 08:58pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Feb 19 2022 09:25pm)
That was kind of why I highlighted the things I've said. The Ukrainians hawks (which are backed by NATO hawks) know fully well they have little to no chance of actually retaking the Donbass region. So the move isn't really a false flag but it's aggression to just draw Russia into some retribution. By doing so the picture of Russia being the bigger invasive villain is complete and all of the sudden much stronger and crippling non military measures are justified against Russia.

I linked an article from Aljazeera awhile back, try to read it if you haven't, I think it's one of the better analyses I've read so far on this situation coming from someone that at least on face value feels impartial.

But for someone that's familiar with the area, the culture, etc this situation is so fucked to me and it's sad that it has gotten to this point. It's the equivalent of the US going to war with Canada or UK going to war with Scotland. These people are very close ethnically, almost all Ukrainians are fluent in Russian and their cultures as so close to each other. The ancient capital of Russia was actually Kiev, and the modern western Russian is much more closer to Ukrainians ethnically than for example far east Russians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievan_Rus%27


What does the West gain from implementing anti-Russian sanctions? Those sanctions are so desirable in the first place because the EU/NATO wants to neutralize Russia's geopolitical impact. Giving the Russians Ukraine in exchange for sanctions is not a trade anyone is going to be ecstatic about.

I read the Aljazeera article; my opinion on Aljazeera is that they present probably the least biased view on international events. I'm not approaching this from an anti-Russian perspective, but we have to be sure that we don't fall into the opposite trap. Russia is far more likely to conduct a false flag operation, because they possess greater means by which to do so. An authoritarian regime and media control has its benefits. The benefit Russia gains is clear. Losing Ukraine isolates Russia in Europe. 9 million Belarussians are all that remains between Putin and NATO. And the regime needs to try all that much harder to explain why Russian authoritarianism is necessary as compared against an increasingly prosperous West. With Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan under Russian control, Russia begins to represent a legitimate geopolitical power center that can sit at the table with the EU, China, and the United States. The benefit the United States gains is not so clear. They'd much rather have Ukraine aligned with NATO than under Russia's thumb. Starting a conflict in the Ukraine guarantees that Ukraine will fall under Russia's thumb. With that in mind, for Putin, the time to act is now. The longer he delays, the less influence over Ukraine he'll have. He needs to bring them back into orbit now, or lose them forever. He might be content with a legitimate power sharing agreement (re Donbass) that prevents Ukraine from breaking West, but Ukraine is unlikely to accept that for obvious reasons. If the option is only between war or losing Ukraine, war is probably the better choice.
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Feb 19 2022 08:58pm
these ukranian separatists are surely doing a lot to provoke a war

the media talks almost exclusively about russia and ukraine, but those rebels are the real wildcard here

these dipshits already shot down the MH17 flight and they seem to be pretty content that putin will bail them out
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Feb 19 2022 09:55pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Feb 19 2022 09:58pm)
What does the West gain from implementing anti-Russian sanctions? Those sanctions are so desirable in the first place because the EU/NATO wants to neutralize Russia's geopolitical impact. Giving the Russians Ukraine in exchange for sanctions is not a trade anyone is going to be ecstatic about.

I read the Aljazeera article; my opinion on Aljazeera is that they present probably the least biased view on international events. I'm not approaching this from an anti-Russian perspective, but we have to be sure that we don't fall into the opposite trap. Russia is far more likely to conduct a false flag operation, because they possess greater means by which to do so. An authoritarian regime and media control has its benefits. The benefit Russia gains is clear. Losing Ukraine isolates Russia in Europe. 9 million Belarussians are all that remains between Putin and NATO. And the regime needs to try all that much harder to explain why Russian authoritarianism is necessary as compared against an increasingly prosperous West. With Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan under Russian control, Russia begins to represent a legitimate geopolitical power center that can sit at the table with the EU, China, and the United States. The benefit the United States gains is not so clear. They'd much rather have Ukraine aligned with NATO than under Russia's thumb. Starting a conflict in the Ukraine guarantees that Ukraine will fall under Russia's thumb. With that in mind, for Putin, the time to act is now. The longer he delays, the less influence over Ukraine he'll have. He needs to bring them back into orbit now, or lose them forever. He might be content with a legitimate power sharing agreement (re Donbass) that prevents Ukraine from breaking West, but Ukraine is unlikely to accept that for obvious reasons. If the option is only between war or losing Ukraine, war is probably the better choice.


Ukraine, like many others soviet USSR states were always under the Russian sphere of influence, so they aren't really gaining anything but rather not losing them. The Russians were okay with giving up the Baltic states because 1. they're tiny 2. culturally and ethnically they're not Slavs. Ukraine is the line in the sand for them because like I said it's the equivalent of Scotland or Wales for England.

I don't want to say the west but rather use NATO. NATO actually has a lot to gain and a lot to lose based on how everything shakes out. If Russia in 5-10 years is supplying half of Europe with energy it means 1. Europe is highly dependent on Russia and 2. When economies becomes so tied together monetarily it's extremely costly to try to create some sort of breakup, which gives Russia massive leverage. The US stands to lose geopolitical influence over kingpin countries like Germany if Germany becomes intertwined with Russia. If we lose Germany, we lose all of Europe as they basically run the EU. That's why that pipeline is such a massive deal.

Secondly, it threatens NATO itself. If Russia is all of the sudden friendly, and economically cooperative with Germany and some of the bigger EU states, that means after awhile the Euros can start looking at NATO as obsolete and a waste of resources. I mean, think about it, why would you contribute 2% of your GDP to something when the sole existence of the alliance was to counter a country (USSR/Russia) that now is a good trading partner who doesn't want war but is enjoying the economic benefits of free trade? What do you think happens to our defense budget? What do you think happens to alphabet agencies that basically get free checks every year, and so on?

Drawing them into a massive war is actually a win for us because 1. it would break up that EU-Russia economic relationship 2. justify NATO's existence (and spending) 3. We would force a historical geopolitical enemy to exhaust themselves in a massive war in Ukraine, making them much weaker, which realistically could lead to them lose control internally

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 19 2022 10:03pm
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Feb 19 2022 09:57pm
Sure sucks to be Russia's neighbor.

I would never start putting shit in my neighbor's yard and say I will beat their ass if they touch my yard.
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Feb 20 2022 01:11pm
The dumbass suicidal Ukrainian army sent in another small diversionary tactical group into LDNR territory on a suicide mission. They were intercepted by LDNR special forces:



Result: one dead Ukrop nazi dumbass and one captured nazi dumbass. 2 LDNR soldiers lightly wounded.

Haha, now just imagine how it will go if they actually commit tens of thousands of troops to one big suicide mission that will make the cauldrons of 2014-2015 look like a picnic in comparison. For reference, in 2015 you had the Ilovaisk "boiler" that resulted in the deaths of some ~800 ukrainian soldiers in a single battle..

This post was edited by chopstickz777 on Feb 20 2022 01:17pm
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Feb 20 2022 01:22pm
Quote (chopstickz777 @ Feb 20 2022 02:11pm)
The dumbass suicidal Ukrainian army sent in another small diversionary tactical group into LDNR territory on a suicide mission. They were intercepted by LDNR special forces:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4H7KMNAizlQ

Result: one dead Ukrop nazi dumbass and one captured nazi dumbass. 2 LDNR soldiers lightly wounded.

Haha, now just imagine how it will go if they actually commit tens of thousands of troops to one big suicide mission that will make the cauldrons of 2014-2015 look like a picnic in comparison. For reference, in 2015 you had the Ilovaisk "boiler" that resulted in the deaths of some ~800 ukrainian soldiers in a single battle..


Are you on salary for Russia? Donbass is a region in Ukraine that is occupied and its inhabitants are being persecuted. Any Russians living there were moved in during Stalinazation. It is still Ukrainian.

And where are the concentration camps in Ukraine?
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Feb 20 2022 01:53pm
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 20 Feb 2022 03:58)
these ukranian separatists are surely doing a lot to provoke a war

the media talks almost exclusively about russia and ukraine, but those rebels are the real wildcard here

these dipshits already shot down the MH17 flight and they seem to be pretty content that putin will bail them out


re-writing history again? they are russian-backed and -supplied. they shot that plane out of the sky with modern russian military equipment. don't act like this is not happening with the knowledge, approval, and direct support of putin, lol...

This post was edited by fender on Feb 20 2022 01:54pm
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