Those are all fair and important points.

A lot will depend on whether the nominee is Biden or Warren. Warren is the change candidate, Biden is the "let's get back to normal" candidate. I'm honestly conflicted as to which would be better. If Trump can once again have an establishment opponent who has been around forever to beat up on, that could succeed again. He can't make that argument against Warren, but would play the socialist/radical argument. Warren could out populist Trump.

Tbh Trump had a decent number of soundbites against Hillary ("You'd be in jail", among others), and those pretty much all originated from her e-mail server debacle. Is it very likely that something as damaging is going to be found with Warren/Biden? Because once Trump has to start talking policy, I think there's a good chance he'll get slapped.

I disagree. Hillary's agenda was boring and run-of-the-mill from start to finish. The most visible element of her entire campaign was its negativity and the pandering to the "woke left", but the actual platform underneath it all was generic.

This time around, the Dems support much more drastic tax hikes, much more openly embrace open borders, will have one hell of a hard time to walk back those gun-grabbing soundbites from their primary debates, and at least Warren is openly campaigning on a sweeping change to the healthcare system which would kick 180m+ americans off their current plan. Trump doesnt need to have a good grasp of all these fields or to have detailed, wonky plans of his own to "win" on policy - all he needs to do is stand on the debate stage and say "I dont intend to do any of that".

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 9 2019 12:07pm

in 2016 people were making "i promise to change nothing" jokes about the HRC > Obama transition. and calling her the status quo candidate.

admittedly she was on the back foot so often with email and other scandals to build out a serious policy platform. but most of her campaign felt like a "victory lap" well before she won. it was like she was trying too hard to signal she was ok after all the scandals.

She had a few "new" things but they were largely stolen from Bernie.

I would like a better insurance plan. I have the best Anthem has to offer and it fucking sucks lol. I still just go to the VA instead.

The difference is that being a status quo candidate works fine when the change candidate is running on polarizing or largely unpopular change.

Trump's anti-free trade promises riled up the disgruntled workers in the midwest much more than they turned off coastal globalization winners. His build the wall hardline immigration stances were a home run with his base, and werent taken seriously or met with indifference by swing voters and liberal whites.

By contrast, eliminating all private insurance in one fell swoop and going for functionally open borders (coupled with granting access to all entitlements) are distinctly unpopular with the public; and gun-grabbing would be highly polarizing and rile up both sides.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 9 2019 02:43pm