Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 8 2019 07:19pm)
He got lucky, true, but you're really underselling the advantages Hillary had. She had a 2-to-1 fundraising advantage. She was backed by the entire Democratic establishment and half of the Republican establishment. She was backed by almost all the media, almost all the cultural and intellectual elites. She had been planning and working towards this campaign for literally decades. She had much more experience with politics and campaigning. She also got lucky/favorable treatment in various investigations into her own misconduct. She got lucky someone broke the Access Hollywood clip, which really damaged Trump and aaalmost brought him down.
Hillary was the overwhelming favorite because she had an overwhelming number of institutional advantages over Trump. Yes, he got lucky, but he needed this luck to make up for her headstart in various areas.
His own deficiencies prevented him from a more convincing triumph, and given the lucky breaks he had during this campaign (Comey etc.), I agree that his campaign wasnt super efficient. But winning the race at all, no matter the circumstances, is still a huge accomplishment when we keep in mind how much of an uphill battle it was for him.
I agree with the bold, he ran an inefficient campaign that ended up being effective.
I don't know man, it doesn't seem like her big advantages really did her that many favors. She has a long history in politics, but that also means she has a ton of dirty laundry that everybody already knew about. Similarly you can't really have extra time to plan during a presidential campaign, you pretty much have to respond to polling data as it comes in. She had a lot of infrastructure already set up though, so there's that. It was also a cycle where "experience with politics and campaigning" was supremely unpopular.
Hillary was the favorite because polling data pre-Comey showed her to be the favorite. There wasn't enough time to gather data and recompile models between Comey's announcement and the election so on election night she definitely did have an inflated chance of success compared to reality.
I don't think any objective observer can call Trump's campaign efficient though, this conversation really just hinges on void's unwillingness to cede that efficiency and efficacy are different concepts.