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#321
Nov 9 2022 04:18pm
Quote (IceMage @ 9 Nov 2022 20:57)
Oz was running against a stroke victim who can barely string a sentence together. Although Mastriano was about as Trumpy as they come, and Shapiro was a strong candidate.

I'm super critical of the right-wing and GOP but I can't understand how this result happened. As you laid out, the fundamental factors are so bad for Democrats. It makes no sense.

The hopeful things I see is that more people are willing to split-ticket vote, or write in/leave blank for the serious nutters. This matters... people who pull the trigger for any lunatic with the right letter beside their name are helping to ruin our democracy. Also, maybe this means that more voters care about democracy and are factoring that in when considering insurrectionists? Kari Lake losing would be incredible.

I think a possibility is that a sizable segment of Trump voters will only come out to vote if he's on the ballot. So, Trump's picks this cycle were bad for Republicans, but it's not necessarily the case that him running is political death in 2024, because the midterm electorate is more normal. But I think it's blatantly obvious a DeSantis ticket in 2024 would destroy Biden, or any other Democrat. At this point I'm just hoping American democracy survives, so I'll happily watch a DeSantis inauguration.


Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ 9 Nov 2022 21:58)
republicans need a trump mobilisation effect without trump

Maybe a segment of hardcore Trumpists only comes out of the woodwork to vote for him and him alone. It's actually not unlike the situation the Democrats had with Obama, who also drove record turnout from "his" people (disengaged minorities and young voters), but was never able to translate his personal electoral performance into strong coattails for his party when he wasn't on the ballot.



But I'm not sure yet if this is actually the correct conclusion from these midterms. Perhaps the abortion issue really closed the enthusiasm gap and turned moderates off from the GOP, particularly in states which aren't socially conservative, like e.g. Michigan. Also, it does seem like candidates who made election denialism and blind allegiance to Trump a central part of their campaign did underperform across the country. If such stances got punished by voters, that would probably be good for the long-term health of American democracy. All in all, it seems as if Trump/Jan6/election denialism were a bigger sore spot for the GOP than the party wanted to admit and contributed to the red wave becoming so muted.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 9 2022 04:21pm
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#322
Nov 9 2022 04:22pm
Quote (HeLiCaL @ 9 Nov 2022 23:12)
you are dealing with a low-information sub-human Cult

https://i.imgur.com/Oj7Z9PY.jpg


Vote blue no matter who
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#323
Nov 9 2022 04:28pm
It looks like the biggest house gains for repub is in FL and NY (4 flips in each state). Any guesses what drove those? I'm guessing DeSantis carried every R in FL, but NY may be crime issues. The NY governor race was tighter than I expected which might point to more concern over local issues vs national issues.
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#324
Nov 9 2022 04:28pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 9 2022 06:18pm)
All in all, it seems as if Trump/Jan6/election denialism were a bigger sore spot for the GOP than the party wanted to admit and contributed to the red wave becoming so muted.


And what does this say about the Trumpist populist moment, which I think you've tried to emphasize how it's about policy, but it seems to me in practice, it's about things other than policy(unless you consider election denalism and other nutty stuff policy).

I don't know that any prominent Trumpist candidate in this election is known for their populist positions on policy. Kari Lake is probably the most prominent Trumpist candidate and she's running on charisma and election denialism. Cult of personality stuff. Reality tv stuff. "She looks great on tv!" the pundits explain.
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#325
Nov 9 2022 04:35pm
Quote (IceMage @ 9 Nov 2022 23:28)
And what does this say about the Trumpist populist moment, which I think you've tried to emphasize how it's about policy, but it seems to me in practice, it's about things other than policy(unless you consider election denalism and other nutty stuff policy).

I don't know that any prominent Trumpist candidate in this election is known for their populist positions on policy. Kari Lake is probably the most prominent Trumpist candidate and she's running on charisma and election denialism. Cult of personality stuff. Reality tv stuff. "She looks great on tv!" the pundits explain.


Huh? We're talking about different questions here:

1. "Why are supporters of Trump's populist movement willing to tolerate so many norm violations?"
2. "To which degree are the norm violations inherent in trumpism turning off moderate or swing voters?"

The answer to the first question can still be "policy", even if the answer to the second question is "to a larger degree than they thought".



Another differentiation that is imho important: voters who are turned off by talk about the stolen election might not necessarily be turned off by the norm violation/undermining of democracy aspect of it, but rather by the backwards-looking perspective. Imho, a lot of voters are sick and tired of hearing about 2020 not necessarily because they're afraid for American democracy, but rather because they don't care about relitigating the past and want candidates who are focused on the challenges of the present and future.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 9 2022 04:37pm
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#326
Nov 9 2022 05:04pm
Quote (TritonV8 @ Nov 9 2022 04:28pm)
It looks like the biggest house gains for repub is in FL and NY (4 flips in each state). Any guesses what drove those? I'm guessing DeSantis carried every R in FL, but NY may be crime issues. The NY governor race was tighter than I expected which might point to more concern over local issues vs national issues.


+4 in Florida can be 100% attributed to the gerrymandered districts that DeSantis put forth (even the Republican FL legislature was against his map). It went from a 16/12 map to a 20/8 one.

https://www.propublica.org/article/ron-desantis-florida-redistricting-map-scheme

This post was edited by Surfpunk on Nov 9 2022 05:05pm
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#327
Nov 9 2022 05:06pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 9 2022 06:35pm)
Huh? We're talking about different questions here:

1. "Why are supporters of Trump's populist movement willing to tolerate so many norm violations?"
2. "To which degree are the norm violations inherent in trumpism turning off moderate or swing voters?"

The answer to the first question can still be "policy", even if the answer to the second question is "to a larger degree than they thought".

Another differentiation that is imho important: voters who are turned off by talk about the stolen election might not necessarily be turned off by the norm violation/undermining of democracy aspect of it, but rather by the backwards-looking perspective. Imho, a lot of voters are sick and tired of hearing about 2020 not necessarily because they're afraid for American democracy, but rather because they don't care about relitigating the past and want candidates who are focused on the challenges of the present and future.


You raised the question of whether "Trump/Jan6/election denialism"(your words) was more of a factor for voters than the GOP wanted to admit.

I raised the point that while you have pretended for years that Trump's rise was about different policy ideas than GOP orthodoxy, the Trumpist candidates don't run on heterodox policy, but rather the "Trump/Jan6/election denialism" shtick.

Which is exactly what I've always claimed... Trump's rise and success is mostly about things other than policy. As I said, Kari Lake is the most Trumpy candidate, perhaps his VP running mate if she wins, because she's charismatic, she attacks the media, and she's an insane election denier. She's not prominent because of tariffs, or subsidies for the steel industry, or child allowances, or anything that could be considered "populist" right-wing policy.
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#328
Nov 9 2022 05:06pm
Quote (HeLiCaL @ Nov 9 2022 11:12pm)
you are dealing with a low-information sub-human Cult

https://i.imgur.com/Oj7Z9PY.jpg


no, no, no!

its republican voters, who are dumb and uneducated
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#329
Nov 9 2022 05:18pm
Quote (HeLiCaL @ 9 Nov 2022 17:12)
you are dealing with a low-information sub-human Cult

https://i.imgur.com/Oj7Z9PY.jpg


lmfao. a surfpunk/icemage/thor/fender/suaceman style candidate
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#330
Nov 9 2022 05:18pm
Quote (HeLiCaL @ Nov 9 2022 02:12pm)
you are dealing with a low-information sub-human Cult

https://i.imgur.com/Oj7Z9PY.jpg


Quote
By the time of his death it was too late to change the ballot or put forth another candidate for his seat. While his opponent, Green candidate Queonia “Zarah” Livingston, accounted for more than 14% of the vote, DeLuca’s victory has triggered a special election that will be held on a later date.


So voting for the dead guy triggers another election where you can elect a democrat as opposed to just handing it to a green party candidate who'd never win normally?

This post was edited by Sioux on Nov 9 2022 05:19pm
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