Quote (ofthevoid @ Feb 19 2022 12:16pm)
The politicians & decision makers in that country as well as in other places like Russia and many other countries around the world don't have the people's interest in mind. I'm from eastern Europe, have distant family in Russia, wife has family in Ukraine and trust me when i say this, 90-95% of people there don't want war. But the people making the decisions don't give a fuck about lost lives, the will of the people, or even the kill lists because these are the same people that have kids at Oxford and Harvard, and I can guarantee you they've got plenty of assurances that if something ever happens they're on a plane to London or the US within hours.
Like those countries are so corrupt, everything is bought and I highly doubt that Ukraine decision makers would give offensive military orders without outside 'blessing'. I think the calculus here from our end is to push Russia into some action so we can justify the sanctions and telling the rest of the Euros 'see big bad bear to the east will aggress' therefore don't do business with them, buy more of our weapons, spend more on NATO, assume an aggressive stance towards them, etc. Domestically it also gives cause to have a pretty bloated intelligence apparatus, it gives us reason to spend more on defense than ever before, to build more bases, and so on.
Ukraine decision makers won't give the order without outside blessing, and they don't have outside blessing. It's one thing to support an offensive when you have some expectation of support and/or success. It's quite another to do with zero expectation of support, and at a time where there's an especially nonexistent chance of success.
A false flag by NATO results in a Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine. Ukraine is lost permanently to the Russian orbit. The United States gains in terms of placing sanctions they could simply place anyway, and by disrupting Russian pipelines. That's it.
Russia is facing a situation where they lose Ukraine permanently to the West. There's an increasingly small number of countries they control, and fewer places with which to hide the regime's obvious inadequacies.