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Nov 6 2020 12:21pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Nov 6 2020 12:19pm)
And Trump by definition did not have a powerful mandate, despite the strong performance by Republicans that year. The same is true here, especially because voters backed Republicans so strongly in the House and Senate.


Oh, I'm not disputing the lack of a mandate at all. Just pointing out that narrow margins in a handful of states were the difference then and now.
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Nov 6 2020 12:21pm
Quote (Mangix @ 6 Nov 2020 19:16)
https://twitter.com/aidan_smx/status/1324465958832889856

long chain, but for anyone interested the tl;dr is that pretty much every house dem that lost was opposed to progressive policies. :rofl:


This does not mean that they lost because they were not progressive enough. It means that they were first-term Democrats sitting in medium- to dark-red seats their party has no business competing for, based on fluky wins during a D+8.6 wave year with asymmetric turnout.
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Nov 6 2020 12:22pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 6 2020 12:18pm)
Yeah, looking at the demographics and in-migration patters in Georgia, it looks irredeemable for the GOP. Even if Trump had held on this year, the state would have been gone in a few years.
With Trump gone, the GOP can staunch the bleeding in the suburbs, and the potential for them to make inroads with hispanics is definitely there. AZ, PA, NC - they can win back or hold on in those states. But the groundswell of young and/or black voters in Atlanta, coupled with its suburbs turning from ruby-red to light-blue, seems insurmountable.


GOP needs to reflip rust belt BG states like MI/PA/WI if they ever want to win again in the next century. GA gone, TX looking purple, AZ and NM a tossup or worse. its insane watching this EC map change over time. makes sense why they tried to shut down the black vote for so long, if it mobilizes they're toast.
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Nov 6 2020 12:25pm
Quote (Mangix @ Nov 6 2020 01:16pm)
https://twitter.com/aidan_smx/status/1324465958832889856

long chain, but for anyone interested the tl;dr is that pretty much every house dem that lost was opposed to progressive policies. :rofl:


Because they are moderates in right-leaning districts who need to be opposed to those policies in order to win. Pelosi actively ran on far-left policies, so it's not surprising that they couldn't avoid guilt by association. That is exactly why they are so upset.

If the takeaway is that these moderates would have won on far-left policy programs, that's just delusional.
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Nov 6 2020 12:26pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 6 Nov 2020 13:14)
both this vote and Stacey Abrams are a direct result of Killer Mike, TI, and their lot getting away from diamond chains and flexing and into the business/politics game.

they've really turned Atlanta around in that regard and activated a number of voters that should scare the GOP shitless, especially after they see Biden take GA and realize they really can make a difference.

yeah GOP probably won't win another Presidential election for 20+ years after 2020. whatever they get back from the never-Trump vote in 2024 forward will be severely offset by new (D) voters and the exodus of Trump voters either not turning out or voting 3rd party. also i doubt the GOP can find someone who can claw a sizable enough portion of the minority vote which continues to expand as Trump did this time around.

assuming the (D)s nominate competent candidates each time of course. it will require the passage of time and a new generation basically

could be wrong, but based on the shifts we are seeing this is probable and likely what the GOP wants. the stupid party loves to complain about who is in charge no matter what

This post was edited by excellence on Nov 6 2020 12:27pm
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Nov 6 2020 12:27pm
Quote (Surfpunk @ Nov 6 2020 02:21pm)
Oh, I'm not disputing the lack of a mandate at all. Just pointing out that narrow margins in a handful of states were the difference then and now.


this term seems redundant
the mandate of the president is to do the work he was hired for
how could you be in the job without a "mandate"
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Nov 6 2020 12:27pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Nov 6 2020 01:22pm)
GOP needs to reflip rust belt BG states like MI/PA/WI if they ever want to win again in the next century. GA gone, TX looking purple, AZ and NM a tossup or worse. its insane watching this EC map change over time. makes sense why they tried to shut down the black vote for so long, if it mobilizes they're toast.


PA will be deep red in a few years, Ohio and Florida are already gone. I like Republican chances in Texas, especially with ground being made up fast by Latinos, who will be blue-collar whites in a cycle or two and therefore hated by the Democratic establishment.
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Nov 6 2020 12:27pm
Quote (excellence @ Nov 6 2020 12:26pm)
yeah GOP probably won't win another Presidential election for 20+ years after 2020. whatever they get back from the never-Trump vote in 2024 forward will be severely offset by new (D) voters and the exodus of Trump voters either not turning out or voting 3rd party. also i doubt the GOP can find someone who can claw a sizable enough portion of the minority vote which continues to expand.

assuming the (D)s nominate competent candidates each time of course. it will require the passage of time and a new generation basically

could be wrong, but based on the shifts we are seeing this is probable and likely what the GOP wants. the stupid party loves to complain about who is in charge no matter what


dear god please let Trump Jr try to make a 2nd conservative party and just split it forever.

Quote (bogie160 @ Nov 6 2020 12:27pm)
PA will be deep red in a few years, Ohio and Florida are already gone. I like Republican chances in Texas, especially with ground being made up fast by Latinos, who will be blue-collar whites in a cycle or two and therefore hated by the Democratic establishment.


idk i feel like florida is always in play, another change to felon voting rights removing fees requirement could make gains there, also not sure if cubans will stick with the GOP post trump.

Ohio is never anything but purple, even with 5% difference in ending counts, next cycle its always back in play. PA i think is similar, especially if we see a surge in voting in Philly among blacks like we see in Atlanta surrounding areas.

texas isnt really purple electorally, well continue to see congresspeople from the blue side make it close or win, but not electorally. yet. give it 20 years and i think its a real chance.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Nov 6 2020 12:30pm
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Nov 6 2020 12:30pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 6 Nov 2020 19:22)
GOP needs to reflip rust belt BG states like MI/PA/WI if they ever want to win again in the next century. GA gone, TX looking purple, AZ and NM a tossup or worse. its insane watching this EC map change over time. makes sense why they tried to shut down the black vote for so long, if it mobilizes they're toast.


Well, Democrats might overplay their hand, like they tend to do time and time again, with all the woke and anti-white bullshit.
If whites voted Republican by similar margins as blacks vote Democrat, the GOP would score landslides until well into the 2040s.


I think the best hope the GOP has to counter the "demographics is destiny/the coming Democratic majority"-trend is if hispanics repeat the trends of "ethnic whites" from the 1940s tthrough 60s, when Italians, Poles and Irish started increasingly identifying and voting like Anglo whites.

It must also be kept in mind that the Democratic coaltion is held together by shared racial and cultural attitudes which are masking a HUGE class conflict. The economic interests of poor minorities and white union workers are almost diametrically opposed to those of upscale white suburbanites and the professional class. Pre-Trump, the GOP was unwilling to exploit this glaring rift because they prefered to run on a platform of Romney/Ryan-esque fiscal conservatism which catered primarly to the Koch brothers and Adelsons of this world.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 6 2020 12:33pm
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Nov 6 2020 12:31pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 6 Nov 2020 13:27)
dear god please let Trump Jr try to make a 2nd conservative party and just split it forever.

nah I think they’ll do a media conglomerate. make up with bannon and “acquire” newsmax and oann etc
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