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Apr 2 2020 03:55pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 2 2020 05:43pm)
as long as a country's testing approach doesnt shift, the tendencies you can read from it should be useful. \


It most certainly will shift. They are pushing hard to get as many tests as possible. For now, the tests are in short supply. That may not be the case when we reach the peak next month. Also, the method of testing is changing:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/fda-coronavirus-antibody-test-authorization/index.html

If some hospitals are using the slower, more reliable PCR tests while others are using the newly-approved antibody tests, then the results are not going to be uniform. And this probably won't be the last time the testing method evolves.
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Apr 2 2020 03:59pm
Quote (theCrossbones @ Apr 2 2020 02:47pm)
Not gonna 2x quote all that wall of text.
1. Legum outlined a series of cost-cutting decisions made by the Trump administration in preceding years that had gutted the nation’s infectious disease defense infrastructure. The “pandemic response team” firing claim referred to news accounts from Spring 2018 reporting that White House officials tasked with directing a national response to a pandemic had been ousted.

Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer abruptly departed from his post leading the global health security team on the National Security Council in May 2018 amid a reorganization of the council by then-National Security Advisor John Bolton, and Ziemer’s team was disbanded. Tom Bossert, whom the Washington Post reported “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks,” had been fired one month prior.

It’s thus true that the Trump administration axed the executive branch team responsible for coordinating a response to a pandemic and did not replace it, eliminating Ziemer’s position and reassigning others, although Bolton was the executive at the top of the National Security Council chain of command at the time.
So it was more than one person.
and all your fact talking was just a cover for "Im a trump cultist"
cool story.. and yes its a hoax, its the flu blah blah cost us weeks of response time.
sorry.


1 person was fired. Budget cuts have been made across the board. So all your nonsense is just nonsense. How things are handled in a bureaucratic fashion are reorganized by quite literally ALL administrations, otherwise you have people with political agendas in the administration who work to counter the commands of the Executive, aka the President. Obama did it, Clinton did it. It's standard procedure.

The idea that a general getting fired from a civilian post has led to the spread of a pandemic ignores that the Chinese military locked down an entire province, and still failed miserably to contain the pandemic.

Now, do you have anything rational to add, or just wish to blame Trump because he can't magically prevent the non-isolationist, liberty-loving USofA from having to deal with a virus that literally every other nation in the world also has to deal with?
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Apr 2 2020 04:07pm
Quote (InsaneBobb @ Apr 2 2020 04:55pm)
The virus has been in the US since late January. Expecting more to die in 2 weeks than the previous 2 months kind of goes against the curve we've seen elsewhere.


the motto of the task force has been "Slow the Spread". The spread is going to happen over a longer period of time. Peak rate is estimated to be 4-6 weeks away.

It took about 1 month from the first US corona death until we see the 1,000th. After that, it took 2 days to double from 1k to 2k. Then it took 3 days to double again and hit 4k. Barring a major external factor to change the trajectory, we are still projected to double every 3 days for the next 4-6 weeks.
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Apr 2 2020 04:10pm
Quote (InsaneBobb @ Apr 2 2020 02:59pm)
1 person was fired. Budget cuts have been made across the board. So all your nonsense is just nonsense. How things are handled in a bureaucratic fashion are reorganized by quite literally ALL administrations, otherwise you have people with political agendas in the administration who work to counter the commands of the Executive, aka the President. Obama did it, Clinton did it. It's standard procedure.

The idea that a general getting fired from a civilian post has led to the spread of a pandemic ignores that the Chinese military locked down an entire province, and still failed miserably to contain the pandemic.

Now, do you have anything rational to add, or just wish to blame Trump because he can't magically prevent the non-isolationist, liberty-loving USofA from having to deal with a virus that literally every other nation in the world also has to deal with?


I'm not saying he should of prevented it.. So stop acting like I am blaming him for the existence of the virus.. I keep stating his down playing cost us weeks of response time.
The entire team and protocol was removed. Sorry you can't read the news. If Obama went on a date for valentine's you people would of freaked out.. oh wait..
Liberty loving USofA wtf does that mean? lmao
Snake oil!
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Apr 2 2020 04:12pm
Quote (Kayeto @ Apr 2 2020 03:07pm)
the motto of the task force has been "Slow the Spread". The spread is going to happen over a longer period of time. Peak rate is estimated to be 4-6 weeks away.

It took about 1 month from the first US corona death until we see the 1,000th. After that, it took 2 days to double from 1k to 2k. Then it took 3 days to double again and hit 4k. Barring a major external factor to change the trajectory, we are still projected to double every 3 days for the next 4-6 weeks.


That has not been seen elsewhere, so the prediction model could well be faulty. Also, why are the casualties no longer being tracked? What are the ages, sexes, prior health issues, substance use histories, etc. of the victims?

Add to that that we are only testing those who exhibit severe symptoms, and we have no realistic measure of who has it. It's possible half the population could have it, and we wouldn't know.

The fact of the matter is, enough data does not exist to justify your prediction model.

Quote (theCrossbones @ Apr 2 2020 03:10pm)
I'm not saying he should of prevented it.. So stop acting like I am blaming him for the existence of the virus.. I keep stating his down playing cost us weeks of response time.
The entire team and protocol was removed. Sorry you can't read the news. If Obama went on a date for valentine's you people would of freaked out.. oh wait..
Liberty loving USofA wtf does that mean? lmao
Snake oil!


Did you read what I posted? He did not "fire the team". He fired one general, and reassigned his responsibilities. You clearly ARE blaming him for the virus. And "preventing panic" is the standard crisis response.

Turn off Vox, it's rotting your brain.

This post was edited by InsaneBobb on Apr 2 2020 04:14pm
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Apr 2 2020 04:19pm
Quote (InsaneBobb @ Apr 2 2020 06:12pm)
That has not been seen elsewhere, so the prediction model could well be faulty. Also, why are the casualties no longer being tracked? What are the ages, sexes, prior health issues, substance use histories, etc. of the victims?

Add to that that we are only testing those who exhibit severe symptoms, and we have no realistic measure of who has it. It's possible half the population could have it, and we wouldn't know.

The fact of the matter is, enough data does not exist to justify your prediction model.


Diagnosed cases are not related to my previous comment at all, you just threw in some unrelated facts to distract from the point.

The point is, there is no intention of preventing the infection from spreading to the whole population. This is not a situation where we are identifying people, tracing their contacts and isolating the infected. The plan is for the whole population to be exposed to the virus over the next 6 months.

That's the current curve we are on. Deviating it from it would require some major external factors being introduced to change the situation drastically.
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Apr 2 2020 04:25pm
Quote (InsaneBobb @ Apr 2 2020 03:12pm)
That has not been seen elsewhere, so the prediction model could well be faulty. Also, why are the casualties no longer being tracked? What are the ages, sexes, prior health issues, substance use histories, etc. of the victims?

Add to that that we are only testing those who exhibit severe symptoms, and we have no realistic measure of who has it. It's possible half the population could have it, and we wouldn't know.

The fact of the matter is, enough data does not exist to justify your prediction model.



Did you read what I posted? He did not "fire the team". He fired one general, and reassigned his responsibilities. You clearly ARE blaming him for the virus. And "preventing panic" is the standard crisis response.

Turn off Vox, it's rotting your brain.


Where did I blame him for the virus? Please prove your case.. And nobody but you is claiming one person to be the entire budget cut decision.
and where did I quote Vox? Fox news boy.

This post was edited by theCrossbones on Apr 2 2020 04:25pm
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Apr 2 2020 04:28pm
Quote (Kayeto @ Apr 2 2020 03:19pm)
Diagnosed cases are not related to my previous comment at all, you just threw in some unrelated facts to distract from the point.

The point is, there is no intention of preventing the infection from spreading to the whole population. This is not a situation where we are identifying people, tracing their contacts and isolating the infected. The plan is for the whole population to be exposed to the virus over the next 6 months.

That's the current curve we are on. Deviating it from it would require some major external factors being introduced to change the situation drastically.


At a guess I would state that there's no way to halt the spread of the infection. And this is part of my point, and thank you for making it for me.

The nature of the virus equals "lethal cold". We haven't managed to stop the common cold or even slow it down, ever, due to it's inherent nature. This IS a cold. Just with a lethality rate.

Thus, I would posit that the only solution is to end the partial martial law that has been imposed, allow it to run it's course, but not stop trying to develop vaccines.

The virus was "discovered" in December. Given incubation times, that means by New Years, it was likely a player on the world stage. Most nations had their first confirmed case sometime in January. That indicates to me that the spread was already so wide before ANY nation addressed that it was an issue (besides China) that "preventing the infection" was already an improbability, if not an outright impossibility.

Quote (theCrossbones @ Apr 2 2020 03:25pm)
Where did I blame him for the virus? Please prove your case.. And nobody but you is claiming one person to be the entire budget cut decision.
and where did I quote Vox? Fox news boy.


Oddly I haven't seen anything from Fox News fro close to a year. You're repeating Vox talking points. Therefore it's logical to assume that you're every bit as braindead as they are. If you'd like to correct the record with who IS melting your brain, feel free. Perhaps The Young Turks? Al Jazira? Mother Jones?

This post was edited by InsaneBobb on Apr 2 2020 04:30pm
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Apr 2 2020 04:40pm
Quote (InsaneBobb @ Apr 2 2020 06:28pm)
Thus, I would posit that the only solution is to end the partial martial law that has been imposed, allow it to run it's course, but not stop trying to develop vaccines.


I can't say with certainty that that isn't the best approach. All I know is that the leaders would never be able to get away with it because of the way our divisive political system is designed. They couldn't survive the optics.

But even without it, the plan is to let the virus eventually reach the whole country. Right now we have 200k confirmed cases. To be extremely generous, let's just say that there are actually 500 times that many people really infected. That would mean 100 million infections. That's still only a third of the country. We still have twice as far to go as we have gone yet. And that's being hilariously generous. Realistically, we probably have only gone about 10% of the way.

Quote (InsaneBobb @ Apr 2 2020 06:28pm)
The nature of the virus equals "lethal cold". We haven't managed to stop the common cold or even slow it down, ever, due to it's inherent nature. This IS a cold.


Here's an article talking about how corona is more contagious than the flu: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-contagious-r-naught-average-patient-spread-2020-3

The fact that people seem to be able to contagious, asymptomatic carriers of corona for at least 2 weeks makes it way off the charts compared to the flu.

This post was edited by Kayeto on Apr 2 2020 04:42pm
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Apr 2 2020 04:44pm
Quote (Kayeto @ Apr 2 2020 03:40pm)
The fact that people seem to be able to contagious, asymptomatic carriers of corona for at least 2 weeks makes it way off the charts compared to the flu.


In general, Coronaviruses are more contagious than the Flu, so I would not doubt this. Add to the fact that 30% of the global population isn't getting vaccines from it, and it makes a lot of sense.

Which makes the reported caseload appear to be so very much lower than what actually exists, that it nullifies mortality estimates, and therefore nearly all predictive models, correct?
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