It's relatively simple to tell the inflection point by looking at the graph of the daily cases instead of the total cases. So in the following pic, look at the bottom chart instead of the one at the top:


As long as you're still in the phase of exponential growth, the daily increases will also look like an exponential curve, just like the curve for the totals.
If the curve of daily deaths is linear but going up, you have broken the exponential growth rate, but the total cases still grow quadratically. Once the daily deaths remain flat, the totals will grow linearly. This is generally the state we want, since in this state, the number of daily cases entering the healthcare system and leaving it will remain constant after a couple of weeks. If the daily cases show a falling curve, the totals will also start to go down with a delay of a couple of days.


So tldr: look for two things: 1.: is the curve of daily new cases growing explosively, just like the curve for the total cases? Then you're still in exponential growth and shit will hit the fan very soon. 2.: is the number of daily new cases remaining more or less flat? If yes, your country will have reached a manageable equilibrium. The inflection point lies somewhere between these two states, when the daily numbers are still growing, but at decreasing rates. An example for this point of the curve is Spain:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

An example for an equilibrium state is Italy:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


In general, keep in mind that due to the incubation time and an administrative delay in reporting, today's infection numbers reflect the infection events which took place 7-10 days ago; and also keep in mind that the number of deaths lags behind the registered infections by another 7-18 days. So if Italy can keeps its daily numbers flat like they have been recently, they'll be over the hump in 1-2 weeks.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 2 2020 01:51pm

France's coronavirus death toll jumps as nursing homes included

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-toll/frances-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-as-nursing-homes-included-idUSKBN21K31I





Very interesting.

Following case is flawed, it's only a partial indicator. I would only follow deads in free world countries, and even this number can be manipulated; or delayed, but not that much.




Yeah seems the count has been delayed.

If you want something "interesting" i suggest you wait a week on US numbers to explode the ass of statistics.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Apr 2 2020 02:51pm

That is doubtful. The virus has been in the US since late January. Expecting more to die in 2 weeks than the previous 2 months kind of goes against the curve we've seen elsewhere.



Panicked people do stupid things. All of the nonsense aside, threats come from every direction when the shit hits the fan. Blaming Trump for the actions of panicked people shows nothing more than a lack of intelligence on your part.



Trump cannot control pandemic outbreaks. Once again, the virus was here in January, while the Chinese were still assuring everyone it was contained.



China has their own CDC.



What are you talking about? The CDC has not been "dismantled" and Trump did not even "eliminate" any pandemic response team. He eliminated 1 key position. No matter how many times you tell a lie, it's still a lie, mate. Have there been some budget cuts? Sure. It's necessary to cut down the bureaucratic bullshit to get anything done. And with a 20t+ debt, we can't really afford to throw billions all over the place for no reason. But "dismantling"? No. Get real. Here, read this:
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/dems-misconstrue-trump-budget-remarks/
But to get real, every nation in the world knew the virus was coming. Yet people are still dying everywhere. Do you think 1 position would have magically prevented it from being a problem? When every doctor and the combined military might of China could neither cure it nor even contain it, with cases of dormency as high as 27 days long, was one guy so fucking magical that he was supposed to do what nobody else in the entire world could? Especially given it was an administrative position and NOT held by a doctor? And what about the $6.594 billion the CDC DID get this year? What'd they do with it? Is every doctor and staff member those billions pay for incompetent? Or is it just possible that the fact we're the US doesn't make us magical unicorns who can cure every fucking thing in 2 seconds?
Grow a brain you useless ingrate.



Unsure why this is a problem? The US CDC was not allowed to respond or even accurately report what was going on. It was clear that having them in China is pointless. They're there to serve US interests, not Chinese interests. Due to Chinese policies, they could not do that. And once again, 20 staffers, more or less, who may or may not even be doctors, is supposed to do what, exactly? The virus has been in the US for over 2 months, and an effective vaccine still doesn't exist, and if it weren't for S. Korea, nor would an effective and fast testing method. How does throwing more billions down a useless rabbit hole help?



Did he though? I mean, he did his best to reassure the public, so as to prevent a panic. He kept the nation moving forward for an extra month. Hospitals were notified and prepaired, the CDC, WHO, NIH were all well informed and hard at work trying to come up with something useful. Not Trump's fault that the ACA did absolutely NOTHING to fund actual hospitals and healthcare, but was just a bullshit insurance regulation program that forced everyone to purchase a financial service. Is Trump now supposed to magically be able to do what no other leader on the planet could and just magically prevent infection? FFS, use your brain. We are not an isolationist nation. Without becoming so and enforcing martial law by mid January, quite literally NOTHING would have changed.



Shout "The Sky is Falling!" as many times as you want, why should anyone believe you, and how stupid would they have to be to do so?



What government response would be considered "acceptable" in your opinion?

Good afternoon.

You said 3rd world people eat that food because 'it's what's available to them' implying that it's out of necessity or poverty. That's not true. In 2020, the overwhelming majority of Chinese people are not going hungry and have ample food. So no they don't eat bats or mice because it's whats available, they do it because it's a cultural taste preference kind of like bugs in SE Asia, or blood sausage in South American countries.

problem is that data on cases doesn't reflect cases: it reflects testing. And even the test results themselves aren't very reliable. There's a huge difference between actual cases and recorded cases. Real cases could be 3 times, 20 times or anything in between. Especially with a unique virus like this where such a huge number of people seem to be asymptomatic carriers that are still contagious for weeks.

There's a much smaller difference between actual covid deaths and reported covid deaths. There's a few ways inaccuracy could be introduced (such as reporting a different cause for a death OR intentional lying to cover up the truth), but it would be hard for the US to under report deaths by 25%.

This post was edited by Kayeto on Apr 2 2020 03:24pm

I explained how to make the most of the data we have available.

Regarding the quality issue: yes, the testing data only gives a distorted and flawed picture of what's really happening, but as long as a country's testing approach doesnt shift, the tendencies you can read from it should be useful. A counterexample is the period a week ago in the US, when the country switched from almost no testing to large-scale testing, and case numbers exploded accordingly.

In particular, it should be noted that the most severe cases will almost surely end up in the hospital in industrialized countries, where they will be tested/detected. The dark figure is overwhelmingly made up by mild or asymptotic cases. Since the share of infected persons who develop severe symptoms should be roughly the same in countries with relatively similar demographics (e.g. Spain, Italy, Germany), one can also look at these numbers of serious cases to get a more reliable metric which isnt as sensitive to the specific testing regime.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 2 2020 03:46pm

US testing has been focused 99.99% on people exhibiting severe symptoms. If you went to a hospital today with a mild fever and tried to get tested, they'd likely turn you away at the door. "You probably don't have it, and you're more likely to get it by being here."

US testing is more of a confirmation bias, than a gathering of neutral information, at this point. Hopefully S. Korea's new testing gizmos will assist with that.

Not gonna 2x quote all that wall of text.
1. Legum outlined a series of cost-cutting decisions made by the Trump administration in preceding years that had gutted the nation’s infectious disease defense infrastructure. The “pandemic response team” firing claim referred to news accounts from Spring 2018 reporting that White House officials tasked with directing a national response to a pandemic had been ousted.

Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer abruptly departed from his post leading the global health security team on the National Security Council in May 2018 amid a reorganization of the council by then-National Security Advisor John Bolton, and Ziemer’s team was disbanded. Tom Bossert, whom the Washington Post reported “had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks,” had been fired one month prior.

It’s thus true that the Trump administration axed the executive branch team responsible for coordinating a response to a pandemic and did not replace it, eliminating Ziemer’s position and reassigning others, although Bolton was the executive at the top of the National Security Council chain of command at the time.
So it was more than one person.
and all your fact talking was just a cover for "Im a trump cultist"
cool story.. and yes its a hoax, its the flu blah blah cost us weeks of response time.
sorry.