Ofc it's still going up. But it will peak. Italy and Spain seem to have peaked or are very near peak, right now. And the US has much better medical facilities than either Spain or Italy. Time will tell.




/e



I've been checking that site daily, even hourly. Spain and Italy were rising like crazy, until like 3 days ago. Then the rise slowed down dramatically. They are at or very near their peak it seems.
I would guess from watching other countries stats, that we will peak at somewhere around 700k cases, which should put the deaths somewhere around 20k.

And like I said, the more time passes, the more our infrastructure for dealing with this will improve.

A lot depends on how serious we are about staying home, etc. If the US opens everything up by April 30th, it might drag on longer. I think that before April 30th the govt. will realize that April 30th is a bit too soon.


This post was edited by Ghot on Apr 2 2020 12:26pm

time will prove how wrong you are, indeed. unfortunately it's not going to be too far in the future either. i wish your idiotic prediction was right, but reality simply doesn't work on hopes, wishes, and prayers...

um.. apparently it is to you.. This is the exact opposite of the truth.. The actual infection % of the entire population is small.
If you let it go unsolved it will continue to spread = more deaths. I guess you could of meant something other than what is typed there as I can't believe you think the death toll will slow the longer it goes..
Not one country has even attempted this "herd immunity" thing.

Better medical facilities, maybe.

Better government response? Yeah no.

Your post was a week ago

https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/natural-disasters/490848-coronavirus-death-toll-passes-50000-as-cases

and that's just the official count, we know that there is chronic under reporting all over the world and the real number is much higher

The official first day of summer is about 3 months away. Got a new prediction for the end of summer?

My prediction is 1.5million (official count) for the USA alone by the end of the summer. As for the global count, I can't even fancy a guess at the official number because we know that there will be widespread under reporting, especially in huge countries like Russia, India and Pakistan.

This post was edited by Kayeto on Apr 2 2020 12:42pm

Perhaps there was a miscommunication, so I will restate the question more clearly

how long, timewise, until you think we reach that inflection point and what makes you think it will be then? What do you think will be the date when the inflection point is reached?

Well... time will tell. Like I said, Spain and Italy with crappy response and less than stellar facilities seems to be at or very near peak. The rate of the rise in cases in both countries has dropped off dramatically in the last 3-4 days.
As for summer... heat is supposed to slow covid-19 down. If folks can just remain distanced and travel be kept to a dire minimum.... I think it's gonna be a lot less deadly than the current estimation.

Deer, beef, pork, poultry etc etc can all be tainted. Not sure what point you're trying to make by displaying you don't understand that other people are different than you.

There's a very large difference between a Western butcher shop and a Chinese wet market.

Cross-contamination between species being the main culprit.

You think western butchers don't fail to practice safe food handling?