Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 9 2022 02:57pm)
I think one factor that must really be considered going forward: despite the topline numbers remaining similar between 2012 and 2020 (for example D+4.4 vs D+4.5 in the presidential national vote), there were sizable coalition shifts underneath the surface. The "great Trump voter swap" which saw both parties trade white working-class for white college educated voters was beneficial for the GOP in terms of the math in the electoral college and perhaps also the Senate (if they don't nominate horrible candidates), but it's becoming clear that it was a bad trade in terms of midterms.
Simply put, the GOP traded away some of the highest propensity voters who usually turn out in midterms for low propensity voters who tend to only show up in presidential years//when Trump himself is on the ballot. This pretty much explains the across-the-board underperformance of Republicans in the entire midwest, but also why they again fell short in the Georgia senate race.
makes sense and it shows a problem i missed on my previous post
aside from (my perspective) ridiculous voting patterns its just about "trading voters" instead of mobilising people with skin in the game (meaning actually productive net tax payers)
the people voting blue will always show up even if homeless drug addicts shit in their living rooms, its futile to try getting these votes
republicans need a trump mobilisation effect without trump
unfortunately democracy has become a battle of one half wanting free shit vs the other half wanting to keep their paychecks, no chance when not enough of the latter show up