Quote (dro94 @ 20 Feb 2019 23:40)
I think we'll see the conservative voting intention go down in the coming weeks with the 3 Tories leaving today and Brexit reaching its (intended) endpoint. Also factor in that the Lib Dems and Independent Group have both stated they are open to working together and they're not that different politically either.
You're right in that we definitely need to move away from FPP and towards an AV system to avoid the current dichotomy.
The FPP and the two-party system it induces were suitable when there was just one main political and ideological fault line, the one between left and right. But nowadays, there are at least two main cleavages, left vs right and globalist vs nationalist. The latter is present in almost all western democracies and gaining importance, but due to the brexit, the fault lines along this cleavage are particularly visible in the UK. Both Tories and Labour are really split internally along these lines.
In essence, the UK would need at least 4 parties to reflect this:
- economically right globalists (LibDems fit this pretty well)
- economically left globalists (this would be traditional, pre-Corbyn Labour, I guess)
- economically right nationalists (Tories... somewhat?!)
- economically left nationalists (UKIP or Labour under Corbyn)