Quote (IceMage @ 21 Jun 2019 01:47)
They mostly steered clear of Trump hatred and embraced healthcare/economic messaging in 2018... and won easily. Especially in the suburbs.
When Trump leaves in 2021 or 2025, his populist movement is dead. Cause it's not mainly about ideas. It takes a personality cult to sustain it.
Steering clear of Trump was kiiiiiiinda easier without Trump on the ballot, dont you agree? They wont have this luxury in 2020. Moreover, most of their 2018 candidates were chosen in local primaries and tailored to the voters of that specific district or state - in the 2020 presidential race, they need to settle on one particular candidate who is able to unite a very diverse big tent party which ranges from the Blue Dog Coalition to the Democratic Socialists of America. By being able to keep things localized, the Democratic party was able to hide the huge fissures and ideological frictions within their party. In 2020, those things will break out in full strength.
Additionally, we shouldnt forget that almost all incumbents get a bloody nose during their first midterms. The blue wave of 2018 imho is not so much the result of brilliant strategy on the part of Pelosi or the DNC, it simply occurred because many voters wanted to put a check on president Trump who was not very popular and seen as a loose gun that desperately needed to be reined in.
Another point, which admittedly is speculation on my part, is the following: I suspect that a good amount of centrist/moderate swing voters in 2016 voted for Republican congressional candidates to put a check on the presumed President Clinton, and never wanted Washington to fall under unified GOP control. Thus, them voting for Democrats in 2018 merely reflected a correction of their strategical miscalculation and does not represent a large-scale, long-term shift of these center voters into reliably blue voters. (Note that those ideological centrists are not identical with "upscale sun belt suburbs", which are indeed trending blue, even though there is
some overlap.)
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 20 2019 10:08pm