Quote (bogie160 @ 10 Jan 2021 22:02)
Manchin is half-Republican already, so unlikely unless Murkowski has an awakening.
Manchin is 73, and will be 77 when his current term ends. There is a possibility that he already intends to end his political career then, so that he doesnt have to hold back and can vote for whichever policies genuinely have his support, with no consideration for how they might play in his R+30 state.
But there are similar red state senators. Jon Tester from Montana is only 64, his political career surely isnt in its twilight yet, and he only barely survived his reelection race in 2018 amidst a D+8.6 environment. Mark Kelly from Arizona and Raphael Warnock from Georgia are up for reelection in 2022. Warnock strikes me as a true believer in the progressive cause, I think he would vote for radical policy if his vote is necessary for passage, even if it costs him his seat. But you also have senators like Sinema, Osoff, Brown or Hassan (up in 22 btw) who hail from R+3 to R+7 states and would definitely be unwilling to commit career suicide for any kind of "win" for the Demcoratic agenda.
Which brings me back to my original point: my biggest fear is not that the 50+1 D Senate will pass bold lefty policy on the issues themselves, my fear is that they pass structural reforms which grab power for Democrats in the long run, but have no short-term impact and thus dont cause a backlash from the (largely uninformed and apolitical) electorate.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 10 2021 03:12pm