Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 9 2022 07:34am)
This. I can rationalize why weak candidates like Oz or Walker didn't get the job done, or that Democrats might eke out a narrow win in races like AZ and NV senate which always tilted their way. Or that underfunded candidates like Tudor Dixon (MI Gov) or Bolduc (NH Sen) couldn't win. What is a lot more eerie, however, is the apparent lack of an enthusiasm gap or turnout edge in favor of Republicans.
Given the political environment (historic midterm trends, Biden's approvals deeply under water, inflation skyhigh, the economy teetering on the brink of recession, crime and the border out of control), this performance is a massive massive disappointment for the GOP, even if they eventually get to 225 seats in the House or so.
Oz was running against a stroke victim who can barely string a sentence together. Although Mastriano was about as Trumpy as they come, and Shapiro was a strong candidate.
I'm super critical of the right-wing and GOP but I can't understand how this result happened. As you laid out, the fundamental factors are so bad for Democrats. It makes no sense.
The hopeful things I see is that more people are willing to split-ticket vote, or write in/leave blank for the serious nutters. This matters... people who pull the trigger for any lunatic with the right letter beside their name are helping to ruin our democracy. Also, maybe this means that more voters care about democracy and are factoring that in when considering insurrectionists? Kari Lake losing would be incredible.
I think a possibility is that a sizable segment of Trump voters will only come out to vote if he's on the ballot. So, Trump's picks this cycle were bad for Republicans, but it's not necessarily the case that him running is political death in 2024, because the midterm electorate is more normal. But I think it's blatantly obvious a DeSantis ticket in 2024 would destroy Biden, or any other Democrat. At this point I'm just hoping American democracy survives, so I'll happily watch a DeSantis inauguration.