Quote (Black XistenZ @ 26 Aug 2018 19:14)
Well, the national environment is perhaps D+8, and Texas really is no longer much more than R+(12-16).
In the most recent Senatorial election in Texas, John Cornyn won by 27.2 points. Abbot won the governor's race by 20.4 points, and he wasn't an incumbent.
In a state-wide, non-presidential election, I suspect the GOP to be at least at the upper end of your range (16) in this state, and maybe higher.
People just don't like Ted Cruz much, even here. He'll win because he is not the Democrat. I'm guessing he will win by 8 points or so. I think the polling favors Democrats. Polling doesn't fully account for the fact that Democrats aren't reliable voters.