Quote (bogie160 @ 30 Jul 2022 04:21)

LKY is probably the single most talented leader of the 20th century, but in this case the material circumstances have changed. The rapprochement that began with Nixon has ended. The Chinese economy is slowing, the signs of which predate the pandemic. The tech sector is being clamped down on, and a gargantuan property bubble is roiling beneath the surface. In 2013, it was a fait accompli that the Chinese economy would eventually (and quickly) surpass that of the United States. That's no longer the case. The Chinese demographic crisis creates a window of opportunity in which China must act, and the question is whether their economic and military capabilities will be sufficient to act before that window closes.

Quote (Mondain @ 30 Jul 2022 05:07)

Banks froze accounts because they and their owner(s) committed fraud.

People Protesting because they can't withdraw money(which isnt there because the bank has no money).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR_FvmGTwsM

Quote (bogie160 @ Jul 29 2022 08:47pm)

Taiwan is a core issue for both the United States and Japan. The loss of Taiwan cuts through the first island chain, which threatens America's ability to come to the defense of Japan, and puts both Okinawa and the Japanese home islands at risk. It would simultaneously allow China unrestricted access to the Pacific, and threaten America's access to the same. Given the enormous economic and strategic importance of both Japan and Pacific trade, the United States is not in a position where it feels that it can allow that to happen. For its part, Japan cannot risk losing Taiwan, as it jeopardizes national security, both directly and indirectly through economic blockade.

If a conflict were to break out tomorrow, Chinese nationalism will probably be the reason why. The CCP needed Han nationalism to replace defunct communist ideology, but it's a fire that's easier to start than to put out.



The multi-decade trend has been pro-independence. The Taiwanese increasingly see themselves as belonging to a different nationality, and this trend is likely to continue as the old guard continue to die out. Unsurprisingly, CCP totalitarianism doesn't look so great from the outside.

China would certainly defeat Taiwan in an armed conflict, but seizing the island would represent the largest naval invasion in history, and almost certainly involve the immediate intercession of both the Americans and the Japanese on the side of Taiwan. The voices calling for armed NATO intervention in Ukraine, a country of very limited significance to world affairs, the invasion of Taiwan would be seismic in scope.

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 30 Jul 2022 13:11)

Nancy Pelosi on her way to Asia now.
Hehehehe

Quote (ownyaah @ Jul 29 2022 09:45pm)

china will absorb most neighboring countries to their alliance in the coming decades, Taiwan is no different.. You can't really compare ukraine to taiwan, it makes no sense. Like i said before china does not need war to gain what it wants, it is an economical behemoth.

Quote (bogie160 @ 31 Jul 2022 07:01)

Has CCP influence over Taiwan increased or decreased over the last ~20 years? What about China's economic influence over that same period?

Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Jul 31 2022 01:03am)

Influence decreased on the political side , economic influence is up and trading between China and Taiwan have been up even during Covid for past 2 years.