Quote (TheOnlyDenny @ 10 Apr 2022 22:45)
Has the margin between macron and le pen increased comparing it with the 2017 election?
Quote (fender @ 10 Apr 2022 23:16)
yes it has, from 2.7 % in 2017 to somewhere between 4.5 and 5 % in 2022
It should be noted that Le Pen had the far-right lane all to herself in 2017 while she had to share it with Zemmour this time around. We can safely add all of Zemmours votes to hers for the second round, so there's that.
Quote (TheOnlyDenny @ 10 Apr 2022 23:19)
Can someone summarize why we have close to a third of French voters wanting her as president?
What's driving people's minds?
Edit: And why's the common ground in the middle of the political spectrum in French politics so small? Like every second vote is either super left or super right. What causes those divisions?
Decades of muslim immigration and failed integration has led a lot of formerly-leftist working-class voters to abandon the center-left Socialist party. Macron stole the establishment-focused and pro-EU parts of their coalition, Melenchon stole the college students and the economic populist voters. To add insult to injury, they nominated a particularly weak candidate this year. Paris mayor Anne hidalgo is the embodiment of a limousine liberal, traditional
Socialiste-voter from outside of Paris were actively repulsed by her.
The center-right Republicans were still strong in 2017, their candidate was on track to make the runoff before a scandal brought him down. Like the Socialists, their base is also broken by the double-whammy of the migration/islam issue driving the more socially-conservative voters of their coalition toward Le Pen while Macron stole their pro-establishment and pro-business wing. This, coupled with the aftermath of several scandals, plus a milktoast candidate, led to their disappointing finish.
Simply put, the cleavage between what Macron stands for and what Le Pen stands for has become the main cleavage in French politics and superseded the traditional left-right split between Socialists and Republicans.
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It should be noted that Zemmour's presence almost cost Le Pen the runoff. Left-wing populist Melenchon was surging late - presumably fueled by the issue of rising prices - and got quite close to overtaking her. According to the preliminary results from the French ministry of interior, Macron finished with 27.8%, Le Pen with 23.1% and Melenchon at 21.9%, so Melenchon got within 1.2% of Le Pen in the end.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 11 2022 05:49am