How long do you think the West is willing to sustain this level of economic sacrifice? How long do you think we in Europe will be willing to house and sustain 10m+ Ukrainian refugees? Pressure on the Ukrainian government to agree to a peaceful solution will mount quickly.
Imho, there's some terrible days or weeks ahead of us, but then, BOTH sides will quickly run out of steam and look for face-saving ways out of this conflict. Morale on the Ukrainian side is really high right now, but that's always the case during the first couple of days of a war, before the true grind begins.

They were continously preparing for crisis since 2008, they have a lot of reserves that werent touched during covid.
So the sad reality is that they will not collapse and can hold out for long.
I dont think the war will be drawn out for much longer

Significantly longer than Russia is and that's ultimately all that matters. Remember, Russia needs us WAY more than we need them. Frankly, I think they've doomed themselves as a nation and are simply going to be a Chinese colony.

As for the refugees, the EU gave them 3 years. There's no way the Russians can fight Ukraine for that long. I think as long as the government is intact and the Russian losses keep stacking up, the Ukrainians will continue fighting.

I don't know how Putin pulls out and saves face though. Maybe he doesn't need to save face because half of Russia will just believe what he says anyway?

I already thought putin would get pissy that he hasnt capture two cities yet and start tossing nukes around.

Sorry, but hard disagree. You are way overestimating the perseverance of Western nations and seriously underestimating the Russian resilience. And no, housing and feeding 10m+ Ukrainians in Western Europe is not sustainable for a full 3 years. Also, the Ukrainian losses will keep stacking up a lot more quickly than the Russian ones. I don't doubt their will to fight, but I doubt their ability to hang on for such a long time.


You are of course right that this was a foolish move by Putin which has doomed himself and his country. He was already on the verge of becoming Xi's bitch before the invasion of Ukraine, now there's no way back.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 6 2022 10:22am

In your opinion, how many Russian soldiers do you think can be sacrificed in the first month before there is turmoil at home? How many civilians do you think they can kill before there are full trade embargoes? What about pushing India to no longer be neutral? How much wealth can be lost from not only the oligarchs, but from your average Russian as well before there is turmoil at home? Ultimately, the Russian military is built to defend their own homeland AND to attack hard and fast. When it comes to offensive capability, they are sprinters, not marathon runners.

Ukraine, right now, has significantly better intel, is being funneled weapons out that whazoo, and has tons of humanitarian aid. Will that be enough to keep fighting? Maybe. It really depends on how quickly Kyiv falls. If the Russians can't take it in a month, they might not take it at all. The Russian strategy might be to keep shelling the whole country, sacrificing thousands of soldiers, etc. and that will probably work but their country will be set back decades.

As for the West, I think there's a proportional relationship between Western sacrifice and Ukrainian death. The more death, the more the West will be willing to sacrifice (at least in the short term). There's a time decay factor you have to consider as well but I think that applies to both Russia and the West. Also, Ukrainians aren't a bunch of unskilled rag heads and may be able to contribute to your economy in some way.

Turmoil at home will only begin once the Russian propaganda and censorship apparatus can no longer hide the true death toll from the Russian people. Which might be quite a while.
Full trade embargos won't happen before spring because Europe simply cannot replace Russian gas on such a short notice. We might not even be able to replace it in time for next winter.
India's position on this war is very complicated. They have historically strong diplomatic ties and military cooperations with Russia that they don't want to risk, particularly since they need their S-400 missile defense system to deter China.
The loss of purchasing power felt by the average Russian is a question I can't really answer. Their economy is traditionally more self-sufficient than the hyperglobalized economies of the West or East Asia, so it could take quite some time until the average Russians start feeling the economic pain.
I agree with you that Kyiv will be the decisive battle of this war.
We would be able to integrate Ukrainians into our society and labor market, but that's gonna take a lot of time; it won't work when too many of them come all at once. Also, the people coming so far skew heavily toward women and children. These people staying here in the long run might be a demographic boon some 15-20 years from now, but will increase the financial burden in the short run.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 7 2022 01:33am