Quote (Black XistenZ @ 25 Apr 2021 14:03)
The Democratic incumbent back in 2003 was significantly more unpopular than Newsom is today. And California was a significantly more light-to-medium blue state compared with it's present, deep-blue hue.
If I had to put numbers to it:
chance for the recall to go through: 40%
chance for the Republican to win if there is a recall election: 25%.
So all in all, I would say there's a 60% chance that Newsom remains governor, 30% chance for a more leftist Dem succeeding him, and a 10% chance for a Republican to follow the footsteps of the Governator.
Interesting. I'd flip your first number: Chance for recall to go through 25%, chance for a republican to win: 40%.
Again, it's not a standard election. It's the same ballot. And it doesn't go through the party process. Anyone's name can be on the ballot. No primaries. There were 135 candidates on the ballot in 2003. There could potentially be more if this were to go through.
My doubts as to whether there will be a recall vote or not are much lower than they were a month ago. It's looking more and more like it will happen. As I say, I give it a 25% shot that the vote will end in a "yes". That being said, given the lack of primaries and watered down state the candidate field will be in...
"Well, I don't know who all these other people are, but I know who Caitlyn Jenner is, and she's trans, so I'll vote for her!" could very likely win the day.
Also note, before you write off California: There are more Republican voters in California than any other state in the nation. And democratic voter turnout in California tends to be rather low in off years. You claim that California was light blue in 2003, but that's simply not true. They were very blue in 2000, with the vote for gore winning by 1.3 million votes (53.45% vs 41.65%). The irony isn't the leaning, it's that Trump gained more votes in California in 2020 than Gore did in 2000. There are a LOT of republican voters in California. Just not as many as Democrats. And both Republicans AND Democrats are going to be faced with the problem of "who are all these people" if faced with a ballot that has 100+ names on it, rather than the 5-10 they're used to in a standard Governor election.
Anyhow, just my thoughts.
Quote (inkanddagger @ 25 Apr 2021 14:10)
California is a way different state now than it was in 2003.
Newsom won’t lose but if he did it would be to another Democrat. The Central Valley morons won’t win this.
Don't think he'll be recalled either. But if he is, I think you're underestimating the wrench the recall throws into things regarding candidate pools.
This post was edited by InsaneBobb on Apr 25 2021 03:19pm
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