Oh, we're shooting for disingenuous now?

65,853,514 is 4.6% larger than 62,984,828.

Yeah, but what I said is that MSM was wrong, the polls were wrong.
And they were. It's only 4 years later and NOW everyone is acting like the polls are infallible. :/


/e What's that saying? Learn from history or you are doomed to repeat it?



Ready for Tuesday?
















This post was edited by Ghot on Nov 1 2020 09:36am

Polls ended up in "tight" in the very last days of 2016 elections, popular vote was still arround 3% more for Clinton.
Then some dishonest people picked up polls made a week or more before.

And you know it.

Some interesting new polls.

Iowa (Des Moines Register) - Trump +7.0
Arizona (RCP avg) - Biden +1.0 w/ 5.5% of the vote unaccounted for

North Carolina is polarized, with CNN and NBC reporting +6 for Biden (51 and 52 percent of the vote), versus Trafalgar showing Trump up +3. Trafalgar has been adamant that Trump's share of the vote is being undercounted, and they've made adjustments to their model to account for that. They're taking a big risk, and if they're wrong it will be hard to trust them in 2024 and beyond.

Iowa breaking hard towards Trump in the final days is probably encouraging for his camp, especially with positive news coming out of Florida. If he manages to keep his 2016 coalition intact (which in Iowa appears to be the case), then he is at least in a theoretical position to repeat. If he doesn't at least perform similarly to 2016, it will be a blowout.

This post was edited by bogie160 on Nov 1 2020 09:48am

I just noticed... in your poll Biden has five options, while Trump only three. But... Trump is still winning. :-)

Predicting it to be close with biden winning but trump using the supreme court to shut down vote counting

I have to list the most likely scenarios. At the end of the day, Biden is ahead in polling and that's our best indicator.

We're at a point where the scenario the Trump campaign thinks of as winning is if it's close enough that they can go to court to get votes thrown out.

Rhetoric question: Why is everyone skipping right over the Electoral College? LOL


/edit Ooh, Trump can only win with the Supreme Court.











This post was edited by Ghot on Nov 1 2020 08:56pm

Don't know. I anticipate that Biden will win the Popular Vote but we'll see a repeat of 2016 with Trump winning due to the Electoral College.