Well, Bernie Sanders could have won last time, Bernie Sanders could have won now, and he would be a literal Jesus Christ to the USA. But his party said both times: "No, he is too dangerous to the political elite and the big corps, we will send an old incestous pedo against Trump..."
Trump is much better than that turncloak, lying powermonger Hillary of the Clinton dynasty whose are always on their killing spree. If not annoying sniffing reporters, then pedonetwork kingpins get suicided around them all the time.
And Trump is better, than that other old pedo...
At least Trump taught a lesson to Kim Jong Un, and he teaches one to China.
And that is why he will win again.
I hope Bernie will keep up until next time. Or maybe his party will fall after the third defeat because they don't let him run for President.

lol

Grandma was just looking out for Thor. She knew he would never be able to handle all that fire and junk in the trunk.

No way you are serious.

This post was edited by sir_lance_bb on Jul 23 2020 10:20am

I must have missed that. What was it?

Man I really love the assumption that you know more about my grandma than me. Its just the icing on the brain damage cake.

your grandma isn't racist, she's just trying to pass down her sexual preferences. wow, that's a new level of stupid here in PARD to excuse racism.

There are several reasons for Texas trending blue.

One is immigration: due to birthright citizenship, the US-born children of illegal immigrants will eventually be eligible voters. Hence, illegal immigration translates into votes for Democrats with a delay of one generation or 20-30 years. Texas started seeing an (still ongoing) huge influx of illegal immigrants from Latin America since the 90s. This is the long-term demographic macro trend that is making Texas more blue.

Another reason is that population growth in the metropolitan areas of Texas is far outpacing that of its rural parts, steadily increasing the urbanization of Texas. This trend has also made the state more blue automatically. In previous decades, this effect was dampened because the suburbs in Texas were very Republican-leaning, more so than suburbs in most other states. This is the area where Trump has done the most damage. The suburbs turning on Trump and, in turn, the GOP is why Texas has trended blue at an accelerated rate under Trump. I would expect this aspect to slow down or even revert once Trump leaves office.

A third reason is in-migration from more liberal, coastal states like California.

A fourth reason is the change in the economic structure of Texas. Its agriculture and oil industries are stagnating while its knowledge-based industries are booming. This attracts a different kind of people to Texas, people who are more Democrat-leaning.

A fifth reason might be the bad handling of the coronavirus crisis by Trump and the Texas GOP. But this remains to be seen.


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Overall, I expect Trump to hold on to Texas in 2020. He imho will only lose it if the election doesnt turn into a total, nationwide blowout. Similarly, I expect the increasing leftward-shift of liberal whites and/or the suburbs to slow down or even revert a bit once Trump is out of office.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 23 2020 02:25pm

i said as much when Beto nearly won, the suburban areas creating a liberal POTUS candidate in Texas was the only sign we need.

Apparently even if Trump doubles the "secret vote" of 2016 he would still comfortably lose, and suburban areas are a big part since he won them by 4% last time but is losing them by a similar amount this time.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Jul 23 2020 02:33pm

This trend will not persist though. All those virtue signalling, faux woke, white suburban liberals will turn sharply to the right once they realize that the left is coming for their privilege too.

Another factor to keep in mind is that the margins in Texas haven't been maxed out. The state was not particularly contested for a long time, so neither party tried as hard as they could to max their results in Texas. Beto came close in Texas in 2018 because of a huge enthusiasm gap, and because he was a perfect fit for the typical Dem voter in Texas. And of course because he outraised his opponent by an unprecedented two to one margin. He was carried by a green wave, an anti-Trump wave, and running against a severly flawed, unpopular opponent in Ted Cruz. It were perfect conditions, and he still couldnt pull it off.

Imho, the closeness of the 2018 Senate race has spooked Republicans more than it should. Trump and Biden running neck and neck in current polls of Texas while Biden leads the national polls by roughly 9% is actually an indicator that (at least on the presidential level), Texas has in fact not shifted too much to the left since Trump won it by 9% in 2016.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 23 2020 02:38pm

Let's quickly analyze this quantitatively:

Trump lost the national popular vote by 2.1% in 2016 while winning Texas by 9.0%, so Texas was 11.1% to the right of the nation in 2016.

According to fivethirtyeight's polling average from July 20, the last day we got Texas polls, Biden leads nationally by 8.8% while Trump leads Texas by 0.1%. So according to these polls, Texas is currently 8.9% to the right of the nation in 2020.
Hence, the state has trended 2.2% to the left over the last 4 years under a very unpopular, relatively inept GOP president whose populism also happens to be a particularly bad fit for Texas.

Now, 2.2% leftward movement every 4 years would put Texas into swing state territory by the end of the 2020s, but like I said, these 2.2% are caused by the combination of various factors, some of which will stop or even revert after Trump.


edit:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 23 2020 02:53pm