Quote (ofthevoid @ Nov 4 2019 10:05pm)
lmk how impeachment is polling in swing states
This has zero chance of getting 2/3 needed to impeach
Two democrats in primarily R districts voted against impeachment and when this get closer to 2020 even more will get cold feet if people stay skeptical. If not it's political suicide.
If you are a betting man,you should put the house, wife and kids that Trump is Potus come election time.
People were so sure of Clinton beating Trump as well.
There's really no way to be sure of this 2020 election. I live in Ohio so the perception around me is sometimes an indicator of what might pull the election, can't really know. Towards the end of the 2016 election (3-4 months before) I kind of started to think Trump is going to win since saw so many people around me be all about Trump and the continued trend of people my age around me politically apathetic.
I don't think there is really any real way to gauge the moderates who would be willing to vote Trump again or vote democrat. My dad voted for Bernie in the primary but voted for Trump because that's how shitty of a candidate Clinton was. The trump cultists I doubt would be willing be swayed at all. But there's a lot of factors that can't really be measured. Trump narrowly won a lot of the voting districts in the swing states which means the election was a lot closer than people realize which is how Clinton had the popular vote since she had larger margins of victory in the districts she won vs Trump only had large margins of victory in red states whereas the swing states were very close and since the system is winner take all, you don't truly notice how close the election was from a distance.
If Trump gets impeached by the house, which looks like that could take place, I really just can't see the senate doing so. Because if the senate impeaches, that probably is for certain means the GOP is giving up the 2020 election and handing over an election is something the GOP would not forgive some senators and would treat them as pariahs in their own party.
As with most things, young people will basically decide the fate of the election and since they are the most politically apathetic group, no real way to tell. Since the young people in the swing states are even more apathetic than the young people in the coastal blue states. When I go to vote , I see maybe 1 person my age for every 4-6 people in the gen x/boomer age group. Which is crazy when you realize Millennials are 25% of the population which is equal to not greater than the boomer group.