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Jun 20 2024 02:50pm
north korea will provide slaves to russia.
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Jun 20 2024 02:55pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Jun 20 2024 03:25pm)
firstly id point out the soviets openly supported NK post korean war as a budding communist state. that veil was shed when the Kim passed leadership to his son, nothing less communist than nepotism and monarchial passage of power. but even post open relations and through the fall of the soviet union its been alleged russia has supported NK. they're one of the few areas that openly had diplomatic relations with NK, against western wishes, and they have kept them afloat allegedly a few times in return for raw materials.

i still fail to see how the non-western axis gains enough capital to not need the west. as long as they stay a seller nation economy they can't stop being friendly to the west. china does a good job sitting in the fence but i think if ww3 broke out today they'd side with the west. they cant feed their people even if russia somehow won with their help and Iran's involvement.

we hear often about the threat of eastern creep of nato, and with good reason, but even pre-Ukraine the USA and west controlled the board. we still do. come back in 50 or 100 years and maybe ill change my opinion. given the demographics of both areas i doubt it tho, once we shed the boomers we'll see an insane economic boom decades ahead of china correcting their population curve imo.


Returning to a cold war, even if its not the same cold war, is something troubling. Definitely, if its one where we're not the largest powerhouse
Biden was very active putting that iron curtain back in place in response to the Ukraine war, now Russia is courting allies into its sphere and reinstituting soviet era defense pcts

But China is the difference this time. And India. And even states like Iran and North Korea. China isn't interested in a war and they've made it their active policy to win the peace and avoid direct engagement at every step, but that's the thing- they are eating our lunch. Gobbling up Africa and the rest of Asia. And China and Russia are overtly aligning. So it comes back to that issue of a waning empire- what happens when the US and EU are fractious and degrading and increasingly unstable, but China and India and Russia are ascendant and control the vast majority of the world's resources and population? We will be the ones with every reason to spark conflict. China doesn't invade Taiwan because it doesn't need to invade Taiwan, its winning without it.

Now that's a more wide lens than this immediately conflict but its still narrow if you do that 'come back in 50 to 100 years' because China still has the issue of a huge age bubble, ballooning middle class consumers compared to producers and has always had the seeds of divided state identities that could turn against each other. And of course, the CCP is doing everything in its power to stabilize the country long term precisely because of those vulnerabilities, erasing class and race distinctions by force, repopulating minority areas, seizing african and asian resources and labor for the long term. It doesn't paint a certainty about the future but its not necessarily like we can just wait for them to implode.

This post was edited by Goomshill on Jun 20 2024 02:55pm
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Jun 20 2024 03:23pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jun 20 2024 09:16pm)
It means that Russia and China are effectively pooling their resources. Like you said later on, it was historically China's job to keep North Koreans fed. Now Russia and China are in alignment and Russia is aiding the DPRK in exchange for weapons, but Russia is also being more proactive about assisting the North Korean weapons programs than China was ever willing. And China is allowing all this now. Its an axis being formed on economic, diplomatic and military cooperation, all at the same time. That absolutely does acceleration the North Korean nuclear threat- even if its just improving the quality and quantity of supposed ICBMs and nukes they already have. But just like we gave up on ever invading north korea, the threat we're facing isn't them nuking us, its us being hedged out of a new world order as the majority of the planet aligns against western interests.

As I said in the OP, most of these countries had deep seated reasons to fight amongst each other and instead are being united as an anti-western force. But the same isn't true for the US allies, who have been fracturing under internal pressures like Brexit, Hungary, Turkey, etc. Having Russia and China and their satellites allied against us, and then aligning the other major poles of the world, most notably India, if not overtly opposed to us, definitely not our allies- makes the world so much smaller for us. Our competitors are in confederacy, our allies are fair weather friends. What % of the world population either opposed or abstained or refused to appear at the farcical ukrainian "peace summit" in the alps?


China is lurking on Russian territory and ressources since... Ever... A defense agreement in-between Putin and Kim is very certainly not helping them.
Anyone here can understand how predatory Nations can be to each others: in the West we are hopefully strongly linked together with shared markets & partially culture (which probably includes "democracy")
For the Eastern bloc this is a completely different story, their economies are FAR to look like this and China does not want these 2 "small" (economically) nuclear powers to protect, to support, each others.

Think about it before writing movies scenarios.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Jun 20 2024 03:24pm
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Jun 20 2024 03:26pm
It's a bit disturbing people don't know about North Korea providing slave labor to other countries.

Russia has utilized this service for many years. Look up "North Korean Labor Camps in Russia".

It's marketed as, North Koreans go to russia to work and send money to their families.
But the reality is the government is taking 99% of the profit, which effectively makes it slave labor.

One case that was somewhat brought up was Logging Camps
https://www.npr.org/2008/04/13/89323218/in-russias-far-east-north-koreans-labor-silently

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/04/04/asia-pacific/north-koreans-trapped-slavery-russia/

e2-


This post was edited by Mondain on Jun 20 2024 03:34pm
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Jun 20 2024 03:32pm
Quote (Mondain @ Jun 20 2024 11:26pm)
It's a bit disturbing people don't know about North Korea providing slave labor to other countries.

Russia has utilized this service for many years. Look up "North Korean Labor Camps in Russia".

It's marketed as, North Koreans go to russia to work and send money to their families.
But the reality is the government is taking 99% of the profit, which effectively makes it slave labor.

One case that was somewhat brought up was Logging Camps
https://www.npr.org/2008/04/13/89323218/in-russias-far-east-north-koreans-labor-silently

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/04/04/asia-pacific/north-koreans-trapped-slavery-russia/


Putin's Russia's future. The sames goes for China who is formatting children like robots at school. Zombies are the best robots.
On western side we have Elon musk with his brain implants.
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Jun 20 2024 03:38pm
Quote (Meanwhile @ Jun 20 2024 04:23pm)
China is lurking on Russian territory and ressources since... Ever... A defense agreement in-between Putin and Kim is very certainly not helping them.
Anyone here can understand how predatory Nations can be to each others: in the West we are hopefully strongly linked together with shared markets & partially culture (which probably includes "democracy")
For the Eastern bloc this is a completely different story, their economies are FAR to look like this and China does not want these 2 "small" (economically) nuclear powers to protect, to support, each others.

Think about it before writing movies scenarios.


Do history books in france only go back to the year 1991 so you don't have to discuss the algerian war?
The USSR and China were enemies throughout the cold war since 1961. They had only lukewarm relations since then, which has only become active and aligned with their mutual opposition to western backed color revolutions, starting in earnest with Ukraine in 2014. Russia trading on international markets in RMB isn't something that's been happening since 'ever', they are establishing their shared markets and military relationships against us. Our glorious leader, our great religion, our noble populace, their wicked despot, their primitive superstition, and now apparently their "predatory" mutual defense pacts and international trade
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Jun 20 2024 03:56pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Jun 20 2024 11:38pm)
Do history books in france only go back to the year 1991 so you don't have to discuss the algerian war?
The USSR and China were enemies throughout the cold war since 1961. They had only lukewarm relations since then, which has only become active and aligned with their mutual opposition to western backed color revolutions, starting in earnest with Ukraine in 2014. Russia trading on international markets in RMB isn't something that's been happening since 'ever', they are establishing their shared markets and military relationships against us. Our glorious leader, our great religion, our noble populace, their wicked despot, their primitive superstition, and now apparently their "predatory" mutual defense pacts and international trade


This kind of rant/distraction attempt is almost as useless and toxic than your usual long tirades.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-keeps-its-distance-russia-north-korea-deepen-ties-2024-06-19/

China would most likely become concerned if North Korea's partnership with Russia leads to provocative behaviour that makes the regional situation more difficult for Beijing, said Niklas Swanstrom, Director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Sweden.
"China wants to do trade, rebuild its economy; they have other more important concerns," he said.

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Jun 20 2024 05:32pm
Quote (Meanwhile @ Jun 20 2024 09:56pm)
This kind of rant/distraction attempt is almost as useless and toxic than your usual long tirades.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-keeps-its-distance-russia-north-korea-deepen-ties-2024-06-19/

China would most likely become concerned if North Korea's partnership with Russia leads to provocative behaviour that makes the regional situation more difficult for Beijing, said Niklas Swanstrom, Director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Sweden.
"China wants to do trade, rebuild its economy; they have other more important concerns," he said.


China also utilizes slave labor from North Korea.



Russia & China use North Koreans as Slave Labor.
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Jun 20 2024 05:44pm
Quote (Goomshill @ 20 Jun 2024 22:55)
Returning to a cold war, even if its not the same cold war, is something troubling. Definitely, if its one where we're not the largest powerhouse
Biden was very active putting that iron curtain back in place in response to the Ukraine war, now Russia is courting allies into its sphere and reinstituting soviet era defense pcts

But China is the difference this time. And India. And even states like Iran and North Korea. China isn't interested in a war and they've made it their active policy to win the peace and avoid direct engagement at every step, but that's the thing- they are eating our lunch. Gobbling up Africa and the rest of Asia. And China and Russia are overtly aligning. So it comes back to that issue of a waning empire- what happens when the US and EU are fractious and degrading and increasingly unstable, but China and India and Russia are ascendant and control the vast majority of the world's resources and population? We will be the ones with every reason to spark conflict. China doesn't invade Taiwan because it doesn't need to invade Taiwan, its winning without it.

Now that's a more wide lens than this immediately conflict but its still narrow if you do that 'come back in 50 to 100 years' because China still has the issue of a huge age bubble, ballooning middle class consumers compared to producers and has always had the seeds of divided state identities that could turn against each other. And of course, the CCP is doing everything in its power to stabilize the country long term precisely because of those vulnerabilities, erasing class and race distinctions by force, repopulating minority areas, seizing african and asian resources and labor for the long term. It doesn't paint a certainty about the future but its not necessarily like we can just wait for them to implode.

There is already growing pushback against China gobbling up Africa, just like Chinese development programs in Africa have largely turned out to be a dud. Their Belt and Road Initiative hasn't been a thumping success story either. Furthermore, the Western bloc is still lightyears ahead of the China/Russia bloc when it comes to naval warfare and intercontinental logistics. In a true war-like scenario, we still unequivocally control the seas and could easily cut off China from the resources of Africa.

The New Axis can let its Houthi attack dogs spite us in the Red Sea right now because we aren't willing to strike back properly; because we don't want the optics of even more dead brown people. But if the West wanted to, it could bomb the Houthis back to the stone age in two weeks max. (It won't take all that much to get them there anyway.) Conversely, the New Axis doesn't have the means to control the seas beyond the South China sea. Yes, China is inching closer to the point where they could break a US-led blockade of the South China Sea with land-based anti-ship missiles, but at worst, that'll allow them to capture Taiwan. They aren't any close to being able to go any further than that.


---------------------------


The true achilles heel of China is their demography. The one-child policy bolstered China's rapid rise since the 1980s, but it also created a tremendously unbalanced population pyramid. As many pundits describe it: "China might be the first country in history which gets old before it gets wealthy." China's GDP per capita in international dollar and adjusted for purchasing power is still less than one third as high as in the US and less than half as high as in the EU. (Keep in mind that the EU contains a lot of economic wasteland in eastern and southeastern Europe).
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=US-CN-EU

So over the coming decades, China will have to keep up its growth without demographic headwinds like in the past, while having to provide for a rapidly escalating number of pensioners, and while struggling with the classic "middle income trap". Furthermore, their one-party rule is very prone to policy mistakes which take far too long to get corrected. As a textbook example, see their zero-covid strategy which caused half the country to sit in super strict lockdowns in late 2022 while the rest of the world had, by that point, already moved on for 8-16 months. And even then, it took multiple huge cities being on the verge of open revolt before the CCP finally gave this policy up.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 20 2024 05:46pm
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Jun 20 2024 05:52pm
Both China and Russia's economies are hurting in various ways.
North Koreans will go to work in factories in these two countries.
It's cheaper to use slave labor than use your own people.

Russia is locked into a war time economy.
China is struggling with real estate and the slow decoupling of western revenue.
North korea is a hermit kingdom, They're not a huge threat, the worst thing they could do is nuke themselves to spread fallout.

China recently claimed that the west was trying to trick them into invading Taiwan. Clearly a paper tiger move to save face.
Little emperor syndrome will cause shock and backlash if Chinese men are sent home in body bags.

Africa is destabilized by terror groups controlled by black ops, Because it has resources every major country wants.

This post was edited by Mondain on Jun 20 2024 05:52pm
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