Quote (Goomshill @ 20 Jun 2024 22:55)
Returning to a cold war, even if its not the same cold war, is something troubling. Definitely, if its one where we're not the largest powerhouse
Biden was very active putting that iron curtain back in place in response to the Ukraine war, now Russia is courting allies into its sphere and reinstituting soviet era defense pcts
But China is the difference this time. And India. And even states like Iran and North Korea. China isn't interested in a war and they've made it their active policy to win the peace and avoid direct engagement at every step, but that's the thing- they are eating our lunch. Gobbling up Africa and the rest of Asia. And China and Russia are overtly aligning. So it comes back to that issue of a waning empire- what happens when the US and EU are fractious and degrading and increasingly unstable, but China and India and Russia are ascendant and control the vast majority of the world's resources and population? We will be the ones with every reason to spark conflict. China doesn't invade Taiwan because it doesn't need to invade Taiwan, its winning without it.
Now that's a more wide lens than this immediately conflict but its still narrow if you do that 'come back in 50 to 100 years' because China still has the issue of a huge age bubble, ballooning middle class consumers compared to producers and has always had the seeds of divided state identities that could turn against each other. And of course, the CCP is doing everything in its power to stabilize the country long term precisely because of those vulnerabilities, erasing class and race distinctions by force, repopulating minority areas, seizing african and asian resources and labor for the long term. It doesn't paint a certainty about the future but its not necessarily like we can just wait for them to implode.
There is already growing pushback against China gobbling up Africa, just like Chinese development programs in Africa have largely turned out to be a dud. Their Belt and Road Initiative hasn't been a thumping success story either. Furthermore, the Western bloc is still lightyears ahead of the China/Russia bloc when it comes to naval warfare and intercontinental logistics. In a true war-like scenario, we still unequivocally control the seas and could easily cut off China from the resources of Africa.
The New Axis can let its Houthi attack dogs spite us in the Red Sea right now because we aren't willing to strike back properly; because we don't want the optics of even more dead brown people. But if the West wanted to, it could bomb the Houthis back to the stone age in two weeks max. (It won't take all that much to get them there anyway.) Conversely, the New Axis doesn't have the means to control the seas beyond the South China sea. Yes, China is inching closer to the point where they could break a US-led blockade of the South China Sea with land-based anti-ship missiles, but at worst, that'll allow them to capture Taiwan. They aren't any close to being able to go any further than that.
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The true achilles heel of China is their demography. The one-child policy bolstered China's rapid rise since the 1980s, but it also created a tremendously unbalanced population pyramid. As many pundits describe it: "China might be the first country in history which gets old before it gets wealthy." China's GDP per capita in international dollar and adjusted for purchasing power is still less than one third as high as in the US and less than half as high as in the EU. (Keep in mind that the EU contains a lot of economic wasteland in eastern and southeastern Europe).
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=US-CN-EUSo over the coming decades, China will have to keep up its growth without demographic headwinds like in the past, while having to provide for a rapidly escalating number of pensioners, and while struggling with the classic "middle income trap". Furthermore, their one-party rule is very prone to policy mistakes which take far too long to get corrected. As a textbook example, see their zero-covid strategy which caused half the country to sit in super strict lockdowns in late 2022 while the rest of the world had, by that point, already moved on for 8-16 months. And even then, it took multiple huge cities being on the verge of open revolt before the CCP finally gave this policy up.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 20 2024 05:46pm