Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 13 2024 04:16pm)
There is a lot of room between achieving maximalist goals ("driving Russia out of every square mile of Ukrainian territory") and total defeat. If Ukraine was able to hold all of its territory except for the Donbass and Crimea, that would still be quite the success for them. Even stopping Russian advances from here on out and holding what they control today would be a semi-good outcome for them.
Capturing the Donbas and Crimea was Putin's objective from the get-go, so if he winds up taking the lands east of the Dnipro but West Ukraine holds onto Kyiv and Odessa, can it really be said to be a good outcome? I mean, besides the part where Ukraine could have negotiated a peace on those terms two years ago and saved hundreds of thousands of lives, its still Putin getting 'what he wants' in the end. Pretty sure the west could have gotten a lot better terms and held onto more of the middle farmlands that are now imperiled.
Quote (thesnipa @ Jun 13 2024 01:29pm)
all of those conflicts are different, we were forced to exit all of them because they turned on us. we're not there, our weapons are. whenever zelensky takes over what ever is left we wont be there in the same capacity. and we have a massive IOU, we didnt loan or sell weapons to the taliban, at least not officially. we were given access to the opium fields but that's not the same as a contract.
frankly im surprised biden didnt force a peace earlier to start recouping funds, but perhaps thats a ploy he's saving for closer to voting day. id expect to see a peace deal announced by october to pump his numbers. the optics of trump calling ukranians nazis falls on deaf ears and moves the needle zero.
When it comes to Afghanistan (back in the USSR) and the Syrian war, we were just arming locals to fight a proxy war and not forced to exit. However many fields are left in Ukraine I doubt they're much more likely to pay us back for ""loans"" any more than those Taliban goatherds were. If West Ukraine is folded into the EU, its going to be an indefinite net negative drain on resources as it becomes the worst welfare state in the union, even greece would start looking like germany.
I'd say for Biden's current decision making, if any is being made at all, its that nasty conflict between political expediency and geopolitical pragmatism. If the optics of perpetuating a pointless forever war get more votes than steering the world towards a peace to our benefit, I guess that's just a failure of democracy itself.