Quote (Crunkt @ 27 Sep 2023 02:01)
bro read the article are you all dumb or something i dont understand
dinosaurs is a colloquial term like wtf
I read the article.
Itâs impossible to achieve 80% generation and EVs by 2030 even if you are given infinite money cheat code. There is just not enough metals and minerals to replace fossil fuel energy for US alone, before tackling on the world.
Some back of the napkin math. US has 290m cars of all sorts registered and driving as of 2022. These include ancient ICE cars from the 1960s which are still roadworthy. Only 2.5M EVs were sold in the US in the past 12 years. They become obsolete within 8-10 years due to battery degradation which costs about 20-30k$ to replace for eg Tesla. Unless something changes radically itâs impossible to replace necessary amount of cars by 2030 or even 2050. Europe has banned sales of ICE vehicles from 2035. I want to see them actually try.
If we take generation alone (without heating in Northern states or industrial use for petrochemistry and so on) it will require US to build c.a. 3500 twh of generation capacity + grid batteries to ensure problem of intermittency is solved. We have to make a big assumption here that demand for electricity doesnât increase due to all the EVs we need to put on the road as well as all fossil fuel heating we need to replace with resistance heating.

Then there is a problem of shipping your shit from China to LA where moving away from fuel oil is not expected anytime soon as sails are inefficient, you canât power electric ocean going vessels with renewables on the vessel itself and you canât power civilian vessels with nuclear due to cost (1bn+ per vessel instead of 50m) as well as prohibition to enter civilian ports on a nuclear driven vessel.
IMO selfreporting states we burned about 200m tonnes in 2020 (1300m barrels) of fuel oil and 10m tonnes of LNG to power about 33000 ships worldwide.
(Report of fuel oil consumption data submitted to the IMO Ship Fuel Oil Consumption Database in GISIS (Reporting year: 2020))
Should stop and give up transitioning away from fossil fuel energy sources? No.
Shall we be honest what sacrifices setting such ambitious hard targets will require from an average Joe? Yes.
Good luck there.
This post was edited by Malopox on Sep 27 2023 12:34am