probably someone like desantis in 4 years

If he loses and America hasn't been reduced to a smoking crater by 2028, you'll probably get someone who appeals even more to non-whites and young people as the parties continue to flip, making the Democrat Party basically only for abortion-happy suffragettes and rich whites, even more than it already is.

The Republican party isn't turning back. The Cheneys are Democrats now. The future of the party is populist right. Trump turned an insurmountable electoral college disadvantage into an advantage.

Well, it's showtime.

When all of the pollsters this year asked who participants voted for in 2020, the polsters get a Biden +10 figure, so it is possible that Trump voters are majorly undercounted still. Will be an absolute nailbiter of a race come Tuesday onward.

Her poll shows Iowa senior voters moving 29-30 points to the left, compared with where they were in 2020. This is one of the most inelastic voter groups, one which stuck with Trump for the past 8 years. And 4 years ago, their lives were actually put in (some vague) danger by lax covid policies, so seniors had more reason to turn on him back then than they do now.

Doesn't seem plausible to me. The crux, of course, is that even if this Selzer poll is 8 or 10 points off from Trump's point of view, it's still a bad poll for him. He won Iowa by 8 in 2020 while losing WI/PA/MI by 0.6-2.3, so he would really want to be up by ~10 points in Iowa. Which is incidentally what the recent Emerson polls shows (Trump up 53-43). And that Trump+10 in IA poll would also be consistent with all the polls showing a tossup in the midwestern battlegrounds.



My guess is that Selzer caught a really bad, skewed sample, but her rigor and professional integrity prompted her to publish this result nonetheless, whereas most other pollsters would have spiked this poll or massaged the data to be more in line with conventional wisdom and common sense.

About 99% of the republican base is aligned on a set of populist principles- stopping jobs going overseas, opposing corporate monopolies, supporting centrist social issues that are neither regressive nor radical. The party electorate is entirely behind Trump, and that won't just vanish in 4 years win or lose.

The DNC base is in total disarray. Even if Kamala wins the party is in a fucked spot. They just kicked out their own president. They hold mutually exclusive views on most issues even down to one candidate- Kamala is running pro Israel ads in PA and anti Israel ads in MI. Their base is so fractured and full of radical elements there has only been one singular uniting current for 8 years: opposition to Trump.

Trump will not be running again. Democrats have far more to lose from this fact. Republicans can rally around desantis or vance or tim scott or whoever else in 2028, while even if Kamala wins tomorrow she'd be a 1 term (or less) president like Biden

This goes back to the long-term discussion/disagreement about the nature of Trumpism and MAGA: folks like IceMage believe that policies barely matter to MAGA voters, that they are primarily driven by a cult of personality surrounding one man and one man alone. A man who is probably a political unicorn; whose 'magic' can't be replicated by anyone else, so that the movement will fizzle out after its leader leaves the stage.

Others believe that support for Trump is primarily driven by his policy stances and his credibility as a political outsider who opposes the swamp. I'm firmly in the latter camp. Even then, it remains to be seen if someone like Vance or DeSantis can ever reach the same kind of credibility that Trump had with his base. Or if a more traditional Republican candidate like Haley or Youngkin could keep the MAGA base in the fold while making inroads with swing voters.



There's also a non-zero chance that Trump gets his second term, but it goes badly and 2028 turns into a 2008 redux. So all in all, I'd say both parties have huge challenges ahead.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 4 2024 07:28am

As a European, The Netherlands specifically, I'm rooting for Trump to win.
I'm sick of the censoring and (media) corruption. I'm sick of the propaganda. There wasn't even a fair selection process (Harris wasn't elected for Democrats). I want politicians that speak their mind, without some hidden agenda. The world has gone insane the past few years and leaving the same corrupt people in office will not fix that.

I'm also sick of woke. And before someone reports me for that comment. I accept who you are, I would never disrespect you. Just leave me alone with it. Accept as well that I don't have to agree with you. I don't want my daughter to shower with the other gender and I don't want either of my kids being told that hormone blockers are normal.

This post was edited by Bart1989 on Nov 4 2024 08:50am

Nice, I agree with everything you said!

Ah so people like Trump and Elon Musk