Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 29 2020 04:07pm)
Hhis current approval ratings are still nothing to write home about. and they are clearly the result of the usual rally around the flag effect that we can always observe in moments of crisis. In fact, one would expect a president to get a bigger ratings bump out of such a crisis than what Trump has seen so far. Keeping historical precedent in mind, the extent of his current bump imho is a bearish instead of a bullish sign for him.
Additionally, you have to look ahead a couple of weeks: the death toll will rise, the pressure on the healthcare system will increase a ton, in some regions beyond the breaking point. The economy and the job markets are guaranteed to take a steep dive, and it's far from guaranteed that they will have recovered enough until November. We havent even started to see the true magnitude of the social and economic devastations that this crisis will cause...
I have the feeling that this "crisis" will probably peak within a month or 1.5 months. I feel the stimulus package will keep the economy from tanking.
Both of these admittedly gut feelings, tell me that Trump will outlast this crisis. Keeping in mind that since the crisis started, Trump's approval rating have actually trended upwards.
I think that more than anything bodes well for his re-election.
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