we simply disagree in our assessment of some fundamentals of China:

first, on how much unrest and grievance there is among the Chinese people under the surface (why do you think they feel the need to implement a social credit system, censor their internet more and more and pander to nationalist sentiment?) this is a key factor in determining how much the Chinese government would have to fear its own people in case of a recession, a banking crisis or a permanent slowdown of their economic growth.

second, on how much the sanctions and tariffs are really hurting them. we should also keep in mind that this entire trade war is not just about trade, it's also about technological dominance. Trump having succeeded in forcing Google to deplatform Huawai is a big strategic success in this sense, even though it will cost him some votes from disgruntled users of Huawai cellphones in the short run.


again: I would only give Trump's current strategy in the trade war a 25% chance of succeeding if he earns a 2nd term, and 12.5% overall based on a 50:50 race in 2020. so I'm not a huge fan of his strategy and actually like China's chances more. nonetheless, in contrast to you, I acknowledge that there is a logic behind his trade war with China, and that it has at least some non-vanishing chance of success.

in closing i'd stick by my 1% chance of success with China.

but you're slightly off on the bolded. If he was using the same tariff strategy with the EU or UK i'd give it MUCH more chance for success. It is china that is the factor here, not Trump's plan inherently. Even then his plan isn't very effective even in a far more realistic market like the EU, and on top of that it causes a lot of retaliation so it has an inherent cost.

The USA exports about $2.5bn, and imports $3.1bn. So from a superficial analysis retalitory tariffs can hurt us more than we can hurt others.

ok, then we're really mostly disagreeing on the Chinese culture and the state of their society.

one thing though: since the US import more than they export, both sides slapping on tariffs of the same magnitude would obviously impose higher costs on their trade partners than on themselves.

if the other countries slap a 20% tariff on the USA's $2.5bn in exports, thats $500m in tariffs, while the US government will make $600m from imposing 20% tariffs on all goods entering the country.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on May 23 2019 11:42am

"make $600m"

and by that you of course mean the US population spending more than their foreign counterparts.

tariffs don't "make money", they're a tax on the people.

you're right that foreign producers would be forced to raise prices more than domestic producers tho.

It is beyond ridiculous how many of you actually believe the CNN is far left and extreme narrative that the fox news people have been pushing for years