Quote (ofthevoid @ 22 May 2019 20:28)

You didn't even understand the question...human rights have nothing to do with what i'm talking about.

Chinese industries are state-subsidized, at least partially. The Chinese gov't wants their businesses to do well. Very difficult for American companies to compete against Chinese companies in such an environment.

It's a huge issue as our market is wide open for their companies yet their market has plenty of barriers for our companies.

Quote (IchBinDaddy @ May 22 2019 06:33pm)

You’re just a big fucking face palm, tbh.

Holy shit I just spit out my beer.

Thanks man.

Quote (ofthevoid @ 22 May 2019 20:36)

sub-80 iq on display folks

Quote (ofthevoid @ May 22 2019 07:36pm)

sub-80 iq on display folks

Quote (Thor123422 @ 22 May 2019 20:40)

I mean, yeah, he's not understanding, but your presentation as just "intellectual property" isn't specific enough for most people to understand. Only reason I know what you're referencing is because I've seen you talk about it several times.

Quote (IchBinDaddy @ May 22 2019 07:54pm)

No... it’s difficult for American companies to compete with fucking slave labor.
End of story.
This guy has his head so far up his own ass.

I’m gonna chug 2 more beers, brb

Quote (thesnipa @ 22 May 2019 23:29)

you have me mistaken, i know that you're saying it's just a possibility. even that is abjectly ridiculous to me.

a democrat carrying on Trump tariffs on china. if ghot didn't say china was trading with russia and that is a win for the USA i'd call it the craziest thing i've read all day.


but instead of just sniping let me ask. what to you would be a sign so strong that it's "working" that a democrat would ignore the partisan reaction to supporting an anti-free trade measure. what sign would there be that it's so effective at "winning" against china that they'd ignore how the public would react to them siding with Trump. China having an economic collapse? China buying oil from Russia? China starting to finance soy bean production in Brazil? China growing increasingly more self sufficient?

because that's where tariffs lead in the next 4 years. now some ground breaking progress that makes it clear to America that tariffs are a winning strategy. the very idea that tariffs against china can work in a "winning" fashion on a 4-8 year time table is fucking stupid. people who bought that ocean front property in kansas are fucking stupid. people who think that a lifetime emperor in all but name can't wait out 4 years of Trump tariffs while trading elsewhere are fucking stupid.

i'm not tho. i'm smart. and i realize they will be ready for the first 100 days of the democratic winner in 2024 to remove the tariff packages that Trump was too ineffectual to get congress to make into real hard to squash legislation. the chinese know this, because i know this. and i'm just a random guy and they're a worldwide almost champion govt.

this oil tariff feint is to harden the resolve of idiots who support tariffs to make them think they're working. and SHOCKER look what ghot thinks on the matter. when you find yourself agreeing with the old man reevaluate. fast.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ May 23 2019 12:23am)

if the chinese really gave in on one of the key demands of Trump/the US/the West:

• a large reduction to their state subsidies
  
• truly open their market for foreign investors
  
• no more forced technology transfer for any company cooperating with Chinese companies
  
• no more economic spying

-----


note that the Chinese, despite being a juggernaut, have a lot of weaknesses as well:

• their government is anti-democratic and authoritarian, the Chinese people dont enjoy the same civil liberties as the people of the West. the unwritten compact between the Chinese government and its people is that the people go along with the rule of the Communist Party and put up with this lack of civil liberties in exchange for ever increasing material wealth. as soon as their economic growth slows down, the CP loses a significant pillar of its legitimization and this compact is at risk of breakign down..
  
• their banking sector is filled to the brim with bad and/or untransparent loans, there is a huge housing bubble which might burst at any moment.
  
• their cities suffer from pollution to a degree not seen in any western city.
  
• they are making heavy investments in the wake of their belt and road initiative in places like central asia and africa where the West has failed to induce meaningful progress or a fruitful economic relationship. at the moment, it looks as if the Chinese will be more successful, but the whole thing still remains a high stakes high risk investment.
  
• due to their one-child policy, China is aging rapidly. the share of elderly people will increase by a lot over the coming years, reducing the "demographic dividend" that had been giving China an extra boost over the last 40 years. demographically, they're running out of steam in the medium term. what this means is that they have less time than it seems to close the gap to the West in terms of gdp/capita if they want to be continue to catch up and compete with us in the long term.

due to those weaknesses, destructive tariffs which are hurting both sides could very well cause one side to reach its breaking point first and force them to cave in. not saying that it will be the Chinese side, but I wouldnt entirely rule it out either.
obviously, none of this will work if Trump is out in 2020, but if he truly gets 5 more years of his trade war, who knows.

if I had to guess out of my ass, I'd say the probability of Trump's tariffs hurting the Chinese so much that they make meaningful concessions is perhaps 20-25% if Trump gets another term. so yes, I wouldnt bet money on Trump on this issue, but ruling it out entirely like you do with smug, self-righteous conviction is short-sighted.