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Mar 31 2020 05:09pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 1 Apr 2020 00:39)
What's really surprising me is the difference between France's 3.5k+ deaths and Germany's 770. Germany has a higher population, a higher number of diagnosed cases, and France has enacted strict shutdown measures earlier than us. And their population is slightly less geriatric than Germany's. I really struggle to imagine that their 11 ICU beds per 100k vs our 25 per 100k is enough to explain such a drastic discrepancy.


I can understand the issue in Italy and Spain - they're even more geriatric, they have poorer air quality, the virus has most definitely been simmering and spreading under the surface for much longer in these two countries than in their European neighbors, they have a low number of ICU beds per capita, their healthcare system has suffered from austerity measures over the last decade, and they are struggling more with multiresistant germs. And their mortality of course went up once their system got overburdened .

So there is a multitude of potential contributing factors to the escalation in these two countries. But the discrepancy between France and Germany cant be plausibly explained by any of these factors, I'm still perplexed by it.


It's simply the amount of tests done. The instruction here was: stay at home and if it's really bad directly call the hospital... There's hardly middle cases.
Globally i think it spread more in latine european countries, Germany made more tests but France has probably much more real cases.

As simple as that. Thus I'm noticing your emergency cases increased drastically in the very last days, isnt it ?
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Mar 31 2020 05:10pm
Quote (dro94 @ Mar 31 2020 05:59pm)
Testing. Germany is doing 80k tests a day and catching the virus early. That makes treatments more effective.



For the last 4 days NY has been testing more per capita than anywhere in the world. Admission rates is something that has been constant across the globe. Either you aren’t testing enough, or Germans are the healthiest demographic in the world. My wife would be happy to think it’s the latter haha. Iirc even S. Korea had hospitalization rate of ~10%
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Mar 31 2020 05:16pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 1 2020 12:08am)
Not really. We are doing more testing, but we're long past the point where catching it early and issuing personalized quarantines can make a big difference. And even here, by far not everyone who is showing symptoms and wants to take the test can actually get one. I know several cases from within my family and closer friends where they were straight up rejected by their GP. There arent that many preemptive tests that could catch an infected person before he/she's showing symptoms.

( I, personally, didnt even bother going to a doctor or taking a test even though I most definitely have it too. Been self-isolating since the symptoms started to show 2 weeks ago. Now, 2 weeks later, the coughing is finally starting to go away... )


It doesn't matter if you know some people who anecdotally couldn't get a test in Germany. The testing is far worse in pretty much every other country which is the only thing that matters if you're looking to compare with other countries.

Quote (Bazi @ Apr 1 2020 12:10am)
For the last 4 days NY has been testing more per capita than anywhere in the world. Admission rates is something that has been constant across the globe. Either you aren’t testing enough, or Germans are the healthiest demographic in the world. My wife would be happy to think it’s the latter haha. Iirc even S. Korea had hospitalization rate of ~10%


We're doing 7000 tests a day and the government haven't got a clue. We were actively pursuing a strategy of herd immunity until 3 weeks ago so there's no extra PPE, ventilators or testing kits available. Like you said in a roundabout way, the NHS is pretty shit too, from a result of chronic underfunding.
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Mar 31 2020 05:18pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 1 Apr 2020 01:09)
It's simply the amount of tests done. The instruction here was: stay at home and if it's really bad directly call the hospital... There's hardly middle cases.
Globally i think it spread more in latine european countries, Germany made more tests but France has probably much more real cases.

As simple as that. Thus I'm noticing your emergency cases increased drastically in the very last days, isnt it ?


The amounts of tests affects the case fatality rate. Which is highly skewed by the testing regimes, which vary wildly between countries. But I was talking about the actual number of deaths, since that's a metric which shouldnt be as skewed. And on this metric, Germany is doing suspiciously well compared to almost anyone else.


Our hospitals have been filling up in recent days, but there are still enough capacities open for our own people; we even flew in a few emergency cases from France and Italy; into less affected regions of our country where we're confident we wont need the beds for another 3 weeks or so.
One thing to keep in mind is that deaths are lagging behind the infection numbers by around 10 or so days, and the reported infection numbers lag the actual infection events by another 10 or so days on average iirc.
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Mar 31 2020 05:33pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 1 Apr 2020 01:18)
The amounts of tests affects the case fatality rate. Which is highly skewed by the testing regimes, which vary wildly between countries. But I was talking about the actual number of deaths, since that's a metric which shouldnt be as skewed. And on this metric, Germany is doing suspiciously well compared to almost anyone else.


Our hospitals have been filling up in recent days, but there are still enough capacities open for our own people; we even flew in a few emergency cases from France and Italy; into less affected regions of our country where we're confident we wont need the beds for another 3 weeks or so.
One thing to keep in mind is that deaths are lagging behind the infection numbers by around 10 or so days, and the reported infection numbers lag the actual infection events by another 10 or so days on average iirc.


The amount of tests is a controllable thing, and i can tell you the French government first tried to not make too much tests, especially on suspicious cases who were properly instructed, even ordered, to stay at home.
The amount of deaths is not relevant at this stage, this is an exponential formula and you know the final results, you have the global picture, only several weeks after the pike is done. Just before the pseudo-provoked second wave - and here we have an ethical problem.

Some countries applied containment early enough while not having much cases, i guess Germany is one of these. Secondary factors are then: are only essential workers working etc...? Even promiscuity habits.

There's others factors incoming; like in US it will be the layer of people who are simply badly covered, so the pike may continue or not lower enough, relatively.

/nb: anyone could write what i wrote above, simple logic, btw i have to confess France delayed its official results by 24h for some reason... We have second largest criticals, not sure if they are really critical or if it's because we take care of our people more than others.

or if critical have a different meaning here ;)


/nb2: i would not be surprised if Germany decided to "trick" things too, each one doing it following their manners: bluff, manipulation, censorship...etc. Diversity.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Mar 31 2020 05:42pm
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Mar 31 2020 05:42pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 31 2020 06:08pm)
Not really. We are doing more testing, but we're long past the point where catching it early and issuing personalized quarantines can make a big difference. And even here, by far not everyone who is showing symptoms and wants to take the test can actually get one. I know several cases from within my family and closer friends where they were straight up rejected by their GP. There arent that many preemptive tests that could catch an infected person before he/she's showing symptoms.

( I, personally, didnt even bother going to a doctor or taking a test even though I most definitely have it too. Been self-isolating since the symptoms started to show 2 weeks ago. Now, 2 weeks later, the coughing is finally starting to go away... )


I had no idea. Can you take deep breaths and/or hold them?

I worry this bug will kill me. I'm not necessarily old enough to really worry about it, but I have a mild heart condition that may not handle fluid pressure pushing on the lungs.
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Mar 31 2020 05:55pm
Quote (Santara @ 1 Apr 2020 01:42)
I had no idea. Can you take deep breaths and/or hold them?

I worry this bug will kill me. I'm not necessarily old enough to really worry about it, but I have a mild heart condition that may not handle fluid pressure pushing on the lungs.


Sure, there were only 2 days (on day II and day XII, strangely) where I felt that this infection was affecting my lungs. But I could always take deep breaths and also hold them.

In general, this was a very weird infection curve. No fever, no pain in the joints, no running nose, only a dry and tenacious cough. On the first two days, I also had the typical feeling of sickness that you get during a viral infection. In general this thing came in waves. A good day followed a bad day, a couple of hours with nothing going on at all were followed by a couple of hours of persistent coughing, etc. The most strange thing was that the worst days came only 2 weeks in, last friday and saturday, on days XII and XIII of the disease.

I'm in my early 30s with no pre-condtions though, so the progression I had probably falls on the more severe side for someone with my demographic parameters.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 31 2020 06:03pm
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Mar 31 2020 06:23pm
The commander of the "USS Theodore Roosevelt" claims the right to evacuate the crew. Several dozen sailors are said to be infected with the virus.

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Mar 31 2020 06:53pm
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/politics/trump-white-house-guidelines-coronavirus/index.html

200 thousand deaths they say. I have a funny feeling it will end up being substantially less and Trump will claim his actions stopped the 200 + death toll.

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Mar 31 2020 06:55pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 31 2020 05:55pm)
Sure, there were only 2 days (on day II and day XII, strangely) where I felt that this infection was affecting my lungs. But I could always take deep breaths and also hold them.

In general, this was a very weird infection curve. No fever, no pain in the joints, no running nose, only a dry and tenacious cough. On the first two days, I also had the typical feeling of sickness that you get during a viral infection. In general this thing came in waves. A good day followed a bad day, a couple of hours with nothing going on at all were followed by a couple of hours of persistent coughing, etc. The most strange thing was that the worst days came only 2 weeks in, last friday and saturday, on days XII and XIII of the disease.

I'm in my early 30s with no pre-condtions though, so the progression I had probably falls on the more severe side for someone with my demographic parameters.


Glad you are okay!
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