Thanks i didn't know about it, shared it with some ppl

The Coronavirus pandemic and its subsequent fallout likely hurts Trump's reelection chances.

Before all of this, things were going great. The economy was strong, no major foreign wars, domestic stability. An almost perfect reelection setup for an incumbent.

The Coronavirus pandemic introduces uncertainty and chaos into the equation. I thought Trump had around an 80-90% reelection chance before all this. Now, I'd say 70% or so.

I would put it at 30-60%, depending on how he handles the coronavirus from here on out, and on how the economy is going to recover (or melt) until November.


One thing to keep in mind, however, is that the world economy was already slowing down anyway. A downturn was long overdue, and there were several indicators that it was imminent before coronavirus happened. Now, he at least has an excuse for the crashing markets.

There is a good explanation for the crash, but a lot of people don't care about the reasons. They just want to see a strong economy.

The bigger factor than the crashing stock market could be if the US ever reaches 20-30% unemployment like some are projecting. That would make a lot of people hurt, and some might put the blame on Trump. He's an easy target in all of this.

30-60%? Wow. I guess I'm still somewhat optimistic for Trump. But yeah, all this is introduces a lot of uncertainty into the election. The Trump presidency has been filled with controversies, but I think this is the truly first bad thing that has happened to dent his election chances.

Honestly, if Trump was running against a stronger candidate, say the Joe Biden from 10 years ago instead of his current, senile self, then Trump would stand no chance.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 23 2020 12:30pm

https://twitter.com/matthewamiller/status/1242149988592992256

I'm curious if Trump supporters dispute this. Do you accept that he's not able to deal with the intricacies of a bill like this? It seems obvious to me, but maybe you guys disagree.

This post was edited by IceMage on Mar 23 2020 02:12pm

i think more realistic is that Trump was hands off because he didnt want blame, not because he isnt capable. he isn't capable of course, but when has that stopped him from trying in the past?

he's not capable of regulating trade and getting the results he wants. he's not capable of a lot of things that he still gets his administration involved in. many times going the EO route and not even involving congress.

but with COVID19 he's let governors take the blame/credit alike for the response, and he's let congress try and fail to come up with an aid package.

its cost/benefit. there's almost no good scenario left, just shades of gray. and they're all darker than the light gray he gets cast in for not doing anything. mainly because of narratives like "he's smart enough not to try and get involved". which i understand, but think are off when we look at his ego.

That's a solid point.