Yeah, the sad truth is that there is no realistic way out in the short or mid term. Spanish society is tired of the appeasement policies that have been going on since the 1980s, when President Felipe González needed the votes from catalan nationalists to maintain the government (later this was repeated by Presidents Aznar, Zapatero and Rajoy), and it seems obvious that they aren't willing to give anymore.... and on the other side, the separatist and nationalist parties will keep on asking for more as that's essentially their reason of existence and role in politics.

So no advances can be made, without leaving one side unhappy. Sánchez knows that and tries to juggle with both sides hoping to win time for himself, but the situation has reached a point were that is no longer possible... it's the reason Rajoy's popularity plummeted.

Maybe a stupid question from an outsider with not a lot of clue about spanish politics: wouldnt it be better for both sides to let the Catalans secede from Spain? The two resulting countries could still maintain close relationships with each other... Is it really worth the hassle to keep things together when they apparently dont fit together anymore?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 10 2019 04:24pm

The problem is that there isn't a majority (let alone a the kind of majority needed to get a country rolling) of catalans that want secession. Plus it would bring issues to other regions like Euskadi, and potentially Galicia and (if there's a complete meltdown) other places as well.

But yeah, in the long term, the only way out is to either force Catalonia out of Spain or force on them a shift towards a unitary Spain that regains control of the education system and public broadcasts that are used for separatist propaganda. But of course, both of these solutions would have disastrous short term consequences no political leader wants to deal with.

And if a referendum was given now, it would be a problem because the remain option would win. That would result in separatist/nationalist parties augmenting their demands for concessions and money (like I said, it's their role in politics, they can't stop doing it no matter what you give them), but this time with the extra strength of blackmail based on the precedent of a previous referendum. Ideally, the referendum would be "leave for good or stay giving up on a much of the current autonomy", but that's just not a realistic option.

If there was a legal referendum in Catalonia on independence and the Separatists didn't win, then the issue would be over for at least a generation. The Separatists would surely agree to a binding referendum on independence where they couldn't bring up the issue again if they lost...and if you're confident of Remain then there wouldn't be the issue of Catalan leaving. It would provide clarity for all parties, take Scotland for example. SNP still want independence after losing the vote but they're powerless to do anything for a very long time.

Well, a hard Brexit might bring a new referendum to the table, and might push the SNP over the goal line this time around.

Extenuating circumstances

Leaving the issue aside for a generation doesn't solve the problem in the long run, it just pushes the issue on to the next generation. For 40 years separatists have demanded something, got it and shut up for 10 years, then ask for something else, and so on.

First it was a special degree of autonomy (when the Constitution was being made, which gives Catalonia, as well as Euskadi, Galicia and Andalucía, certain privileges the other autonomous regions don't have); then in the late 80s and early 90s it was an almost complete control of education (which they've used to virtually eliminate the use of spanish language in public education, and manipulate text books for propaganda); then during the Zapatero years it was a new regional statute that would give them even further autonomy; now it's a referendum... yeah, they'll shut up for 10 years, but then come back asking for more. And every time they come back with more blackmailing power, in a more hostile social and political climate. We can't go on like this.

Talking about a "once in a life time, never going to happen again" referendum is unrealistic. Once there's a referendum, there's a precedent, and that's what separatists are aiming for. As left wing separatist party ERC's spokesman in the national congress admitted, right now there isn't a majority of catalans that want independence, but it's important for a referendum to take place, so that they can keep working to create a change in catalan society until the desire for secession wins.

Not to mention that separatists aren't just asking for a referendum, they are asking to be recognized as a nation, and so with the right to self determination (thus, whenever they want, under their rules). Until they have complete sovereignty, they'll keep asking for more and more, because that's their purpose in politics.

Like you say about the UK leaving the EU, it's better in the long term for both parties

But the ideal solution in the EU would be for the UK to stay under the same conditions the other countries endure though

Not for the UK