https://mobile.twitter.com/HillelNeuer/status/1337136758748798976

this warmongering failed Presidential candidate and likely seditious scumbag of a social climber John Ketchup Kerry is going to be back in politics, helping to wreck peace deals he said would never happen SMH

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1337484498418724869

For reference: Obama won the popular vote by 3.9% in 2012, yet won the tipping point state in the electoral college by 5.37%. By contrast, Biden's margin was 4.4% nationally, but he only won by 0.63% in the tipping point state. ( And that's with latinos moving toward Trump to dampen the margin by which Biden won California and by which he lost Texas. With the same coalitions as in 2016, Biden would have won the popular vote by over 5% but nonethelss lost the electoral college.)

Anyway, that's more than 5 percentage points of efficiency gain for the GOP without having to increase their overall appeal/support. So much for the idea that the GOP might be going back to its old coalition...




You'll get my answer to the Goldberg article, I'm just really busy atm and dont want to just spew it out. (And now I also had to accelerate my christmas shopping spree due to the impending business closures in Germany...)

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Dec 12 2020 03:41am

Is that really something to celebrate? The GOP is becoming less popular overall, but the location of their voters happens to force a tight electoral college competition anyway?

I think a political party able to look in the mirror would see this as worrying.

On the article, just post a Donald Trump wrong.gif and be done with it.

The GOP did not beccome less popular. Nearly identical share of the popular vote as in 2012, and that's with a far worse political environment (once in a century pandemic on which their president dropped the ball, etc.)
And compared with 2016, Trump actually did increase his vote share. By this metric, he actually DID become more popular.

The larger point is that the Democrats cannot possibly rely on always winning the PV by 4+ points, not in the current, hyperpolarized environment. Not once the Republican standard bearer is no longer a clumsy lightning rod. Neither can they rely on being bailed out by a pandemic ex machina or a similar event of this magnitude every 4 years. Aaaaand last but not least, the "new" GOP coalition is also significantly more efficient in the Senate.

https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1339382084062883840

We're back to the tan suit stories.

Deb Haaland nominated for Secretary of the Interior

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/12/17/joe-biden-selects-deb-haaland-lead-interior-first-native-american-role/3778041001/

Its a good sign for the GOP. If someone as disliked as Trump can almost win then 2024 should be much easier.

Trump appeals to the nutty, dark underbelly of America, so I'm not sure how any other GOP candidate would do.

That's really the big question going forward - how many of Trump's supporters will turn out for run of the mill republicans? But it cuts both ways, it is also an open question if those upscale, educated suburbanites who went Romney-Clinton-Biden or Romney-Trump-Biden will really permanently realign and keep voting for Democrats, now that Trump is gone. Similarly, it's quite questionable that progressive and young voters will keep turning out in record numbers for Democrats after the Biden admin underdelivers badly for their causes.

If I had to bet, I'd say that Trump's absence will reduce turnout on both sides by about the same amount.