Quote (Santara @ May 6 2016 04:39pm)
On the other hand, the libertarian party will be on the ballot in all 50 states, and Gary Johnson pulled 11% in a 3-way with Trump/Clinton. Assuming he wins his lawsuit to gain admittance to the presidential debates, it could be a different 3rd party spoiler come November.
I think them benefiting is way more likely than a viable Indy coming out of nowhere so late, but I don't even think that would swing the outcome given how much Obama beat Romney in the battlegrounds. Clinton has to either do significantly worse than Obama did in those, or Trump has to do better than Romney did (or both at the same time). In the case of VA: Johnson got about 30k votes in back in 2012 and we also had a former House Rep. on the ballot who also spent 20 years in the State Senate and he managed only 10k votes, and he was practically universally known in a third of the state that Obama ignored and that Romney took for granted. If the non-major vote only amounts to ~60k votes and Obama received 2.0m and Romney got a little over 1.8m, it's just not going to make the difference unless something else caused the numbers to shift at the top. VA's also one of the few states this year that won't have to deal with GOP voter suppression that had to put up with it in 2012 (the other being PA), so that could mean more additional raw votes.
Quote (IgoSoHard @ May 9 2016 07:07am)
Key word being you think. Just like you think Clintons negatives are going to magically go up. Just like how everyone thought that the idea was absurd that Trump would garnish any real support, much less win the nomination. Both of which he's doing in staggering fashion. Neither of these God awful candidates support are going anywhere. It seems like Trump has much more energy & enthusiasm behind him compared to Clinton. Sanders is seeing a lot as well although I'm not sure his followers that are feeling some type of berning sensation when they pee, are going to fall in line with Hillary once she wins the nomination. Also, everyone is well aware of Trumps off-putting antics, & his numbers have steadily gone up. I'm not sure Hillary is going to see the same phenomenon once the attack ads start rolling in.
No, LOL. Just no.
I don't understand how people still don't get this shit after all this time. His numbers haven't "steadily gone up." He gets more unpopular as time passes, to the point now where he's comically unpopular. He's become more popular among
Republicans, starting last August and hitting a key mark in November (Paris attacks), but his numbers have been going in the complete opposite direction with literally everyone else. That dynamic can work in a primary where he only won 40% of the cumulative vote because the rest of it (and the money) is split between the huge field, all because the party is disorganized.
To win a general election his numbers with other groups have to start moving in the right direction now, too. And they have to improve by a whole lot.