I think the biggest negative against Klobuchar is name recognition, at this point. She's just not as well known as people like Biden, Sanders, Harris, and Warren.

Owen's intro had me loling. The Infowars/Fox News bullshit narrative clashing with the rule of law is a sight to behold.

This post was edited by IceMage on Jan 31 2019 12:20pm

He's turning into quite the apprentice like in any cheesy action flick that the Seagal type master of bullshido has to get through before the end boss gets taken out

I think out of these 3, he is most likely to retain Wisconsin. No large agglomerations, very white population, not too many college-educated people. Michigan is probably the most likely to rebound to (D), simply because his victory there in 2016 was so close. Pennsylvania... will probably come down to the pittsburgh suburbs.

The following map imho is still relevant:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/clinton-trump-vote-maps-2016/

But yeah, if he's running against Klobuchar, or Biden or Bernie for that matter, he wont win any of these three. Against Harris, he'd most likely carry Wisconsin, but face an uphill battle in Pennsylvania and Michigan (black turnout in Philly and Detroit). Against Beto/Warren/Gillibrand/Castro, I have no idea how these three states would go.

which one of these three is he most likely to retain in your opinion?

PA due to steel plants.

in reality Steel hasn't actually increased much in jobs in steel plants but the economics are helping some of the towns there.

MI is gone unless Trump can get the car plants to make something happen there. And his EPA will be blamed for 4 more years of Flynt led cocktails.

WI had Evers win over Walker, Foxconn deal fell through, and we have a large farm population that is on pins and needles over soy prices.

Every barely defeated Walker by 1.1% in a D+9 year, I really dont think this means a lot for 2020. (Of course, if 2020 is D+9 again, Trump is toastier than toast anyway.)

But you're right about the farm stuff, this might cost him some pivotal votes.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 31 2019 12:44pm

evers is just a small indicator, but it's recent and gubernatorial races and potus races are far more comparable data than senate/congresspeople races.

foxconn is a developing thing, it was Paul Ryans hail mary as a chance to do a favor to his home state, and instead he just hyped up a rather boring development. that may not materialize at all.

farms will be big, any movement against legal pot in 2019-2020 will hurt Trump if he goes there, and Devos's educational reforms aren't winning over the teachers union that was already dead set against the GOP thanks to walker.

true true, just one thing: arent teachers union a D+90 constituency (or something like that) anyway? like... would it even be possible for them to become even more democratic-leaning?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 31 2019 01:28pm