your feelings on the matter don’t matter

https://www.freep.com/story/news/2019/01/30/farmington-university-immigrant-arrests/2724992002/

DHS is fucking crafty

They created a fake university in Michigan staffed by DHS agents. They employed 8 indian guys who went around recruiting other indian immigrants with a pay-to-stay scheme where they could pay to enroll in the fake college, knowing that it was fraudulent, in order to satisfy their requirement to stay in the country instead of being deported. The DHS made sure that the recruiters were informing those that participated in the conspiracy that they would not actually attend any classes or earn any credits or degrees, just pay kickbacks to the recruiters. But the fact the DHS was running the entire thing was unbeknownst to them all, and the agents finally closed the net and swooped up the eight recruiters and have the dirt on 600 illegal aliens.

This post was edited by Goomshill on Jan 30 2019 06:01pm

No more games!

wall wall wall

wallwallwallwall

WALL WALL WALL

stable af

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/amy-klobuchar-is-best-equipped-to-send-the-president-packing/2019/01/30/0f85122c-240a-11e9-81fd-b7b05d5bed90_story.html

I think Klobuchar really is the best choice... the problem is she's not progressive or brown enough to win the primary.

Trumpists... does any candidate worry you more than her?

"Worry" is the product of "probability to defeat trump" and "amount of horrible policies he/she would enact as president".

Klobuchar has the highest probability of defeating trump, I agree with that. But as president, she wouldnt scare me nearly as much as a President Harris or Gillibrand.

Someone who I'd consider a big threat as well is Julian Castro. He's unlikely to win the primary, but if he does, Trump is in a world of pain.

Castro would activate a lot of the currently untapped latino vote, similar to how Obama caused a huge surge in black turnout. This and him being from Texas would force the GOP to expend a non-negligible amount of resources to just hold Texas, in a year where they are likely to be spread thin to begin with. Then, a latino at the top of the ticket, coupled with the restoring of felon voting rights would all but guarantee Castro to carry Florida, which is otherwise a relatively "trumpy" state that I can very well see staying in Trump's column with any other Dem candidate. Castro would also make Arizona really competitive. But him winning Florida, which would be pretty much a given, would already force Trump to hold onto Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan and North Carolina. I really dont see him pulling that off.

Imho, the path to reelection for Trump is to repeat his 2016 map, narrowly hold on to Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin, give up Michigan, be able to lose Pennsylvania. Like this:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/BPwAb

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 31 2019 09:15am

She'd end up splitting the center-to-slightly left law and order Dems with Harris, as they're both former prosecutors. I honestly believe Sanders would put up the best fight against Trump in the general, because he has the most significant differences in actual policies. However, the establishment left is already trying to destroy him now, because they're afraid of finally being made irrelevant. AOC is just another nail in that coffin.

I disagree. Sanders is so far to the left on economic issues that he would drive the moderate and slightly red-leaning swing voters - who currently are very willing to break with Trump - back into his column. Sanders and Harris are so divisive that they I believe them to be among the easier opponents for Trump, compared to the alternatives.

Imho, Klobuchar and Castro would be the most likely to defeat him (see my post above for an explanation on Castro), but they are underdogs during the primary. Out of the front runners, I think Biden and Beto would have the best shot against Trump. In general, I believe that the best bet to defeat Trump is not a far-left progressive with a maximum amount of contrast to Trump. No, I think the easiest way of defeating him is to nominate a boring, non-polarizing candidate. Just nominate someone who gives voters the feeling of stability and predictability, of steadiness and common sense, someone who does not scare them away with ideas about a 70% marginal tax rate or abolishing ICE, and this candidate can easily take a backseat and just watch Trump self-destruct.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 31 2019 09:25am

Not sure about everyone else but anecdotally the people I engaged during the campaign that ended up going Trump and spouted all the Hillary memes were all open to sanders and went to Trump after Hillary beat him out

Sanders and Biden would probably beat him at this point, I think even Harris is far more of a threat than Trump people think (I'm not a fan of hers personally)

I think Sanders has been the most likely to beat Trump not only now but over the last year and probably going into 2020

Lots of support, clear differences, doesn't scare moderates like me that know underneath it all is just an old pragmatic dude that is no real threat to the country

This post was edited by Beowulf on Jan 31 2019 09:33am

I'm strictly speaking of her probability of defeating Trump. Trump won MI, WI, and PA just barely... I don't see him winning any of them again, especially if he faces someone who appeals to those states like Klobuchar.