Quote (Thor123422 @ Mar 29 2020 03:03pm)
Nah, I'll continue to point out your arrogance when it shows itself. You know just enough statistics to use tools but not enough statistics to understand why you use them or where the weaknesses are. And I don't expect you will ever go out of your way to learn where the weaknesses are because you are lazy.
So you're showing how stupid i am by calling me stupid instead of refuting any of the on topic things i posted? This is the next generation of scientists we're churning out.
Quote (balrog66 @ Mar 29 2020 03:19pm)
Most of the data inputs come with decently sized uncertainties. Vent length of stay of 10 days seems pretty short, over here they adjusted modeling because the average is 3 weeks.
I think it'd be better to have a range of inputs and plot with confidence intervals. And I expect there are more sophisticated models out there than this one.
The fixed amount of current available extra ventilators is not that uncertain to me imo. Maybe that 1% ventilator rate is higher, like i said i'm open to updating if we have more current estimates. But even if it's 2% a doubling we are looking at
60,000*.02=1200 ventilators needed in NY currently. We have 15,000 ventilators in New York. We would need our infections to be 15,000/1200=12.5 magnitudes higher to reach our capacity.
In such a scenario you would give NY all of the spare ventilators and then do what if other states need some as well?
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 29 2020 02:41pm