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Mar 29 2020 12:15pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 29 2020 01:59pm)
60k cases*.01=600 ventilators; We currently have 15,000 ventilators.

We would need the 60 thousand cases to go up by a factor of 75 to need the 45,000 ventilators.

Twitter opinions to me are just that. Numbers are much easier to work with to create meaningful decisions. Where do you think i'm getting something wrong?


Here's the thing: I'm smart enough to know what I don't know.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-in-ny-cuomo-defends-need-for-30k-ventilators-after-trump-called-it-overblown/
Quote
“All the predictions say you could have an apex needing 140,000 beds and about 40,000 ventilators,” Cuomo said at a press briefing Friday at Manhattan’s Javits Center. The state’s predictions come from Weill Cornell Medicine, the CDC and the consulting firm McKinsey and Company.


Fauci agrees with the assessment.

But the Dear Leader is skeptical, so the guy with a criminal justice degree and experience with excel is going to get to the real truth?
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Mar 29 2020 12:20pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 29 2020 12:53pm)
I don't doubt some places need them more than the others and i think it's important to give them to places that need them the most, instead of giving a limited to supply to places that don't actually need them.

We have around 31,000 cases in NYC. Do you think we need 30,000 ventilators when the rate of ventilator need is 1%? Are you telling me of these 31,000 cases almost all need ventilators?

Do you think it'd be wiser to send some of those to place like Michigan or wherever else?



No I don’t think they should all be moved to NY. I think the 30k ventilator estimate was During peak time (couple weeks yet away)

I do think we can predict that there’s a good chance they will need close to that many come peak time, however it’s clear that several hubs are gonna get hard simultaneously. New Orleans, Detroit , etc in addition to NY. I think we should be mobilizing this 20k (iirc could be wrong about this number) stockpile now to hard hit areas

Not to mention rural America is going to see a surge soon and they are frankly speaking woefully underprepared for such a scenario

This post was edited by Bazi on Mar 29 2020 12:21pm
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Mar 29 2020 12:21pm
Quote (IceMage @ Mar 29 2020 02:15pm)
Here's the thing: I'm smart enough to know what I don't know.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-in-ny-cuomo-defends-need-for-30k-ventilators-after-trump-called-it-overblown/


Fauci agrees with the assessment.

But the Dear Leader is skeptical, so the guy with a criminal justice degree and experience with excel is going to get to the real truth?


I also have an econ degree and i'm half way through with an MBA in analytics.

Numbers i posted are very easy to follow and understand. Which of the numbers are inaccurate so i could update to give us a meaningful need for scarce resource allocation?

Are you going to answer or once again run away and find an article of he said she said? Post the numbers by Cornell or Mckinsey at least?
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Mar 29 2020 12:27pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 29 2020 02:21pm)
I also have an econ degree and i'm half way through with an MBA in analytics.

Numbers i posted are very easy to follow and understand. Which of the numbers are inaccurate so i could update to give us a meaningful need for scarce resource allocation?

Are you going to answer or once again run away and find an article of he said she said? Post the numbers by Cornell or Mckinsey at least?


If you want to look up the assessments used by Cuomo and find flaws in them, go right ahead. Let me say for the third time, I listen to experts and believe what they say unless given sufficient reason not to. The ramblings of an idiot like Trump isn't a sufficient reason to doubt what the experts are telling us.

This post was edited by IceMage on Mar 29 2020 12:29pm
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Mar 29 2020 12:32pm
Quote (IceMage @ Mar 29 2020 02:15pm)
But the Dear Leader is skeptical, so the guy with a criminal justice degree and experience with excel is going to get to the real truth?


There's no evidence that any masks are being withheld. Trump only made a comment that this number is absurdly large.
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Mar 29 2020 12:34pm
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Mar 29 2020 12:35pm
Quote (IceMage @ Mar 29 2020 02:27pm)
If you want to look up the assessments used by Cuomo and find flaws in them, go right ahead. Let me say for the third time, I listen to experts and believe what they say unless given sufficient reason not to.


Dude i'm using 4th grade math. I revised the infections to 60k once you gave me an updated number, i can revise other parts. You don't need experts to follow through with what i'm doing.

Instead of following twitter talking heads, follow along with me. This is what we have:

Quote
Only 16,600 ventilators.

That’s the total number of breathing machines that sit in the Strategic National Stockpile, the government reserve meant to fortify overwhelmed hospitals in a crisis.


https://publicintegrity.org/health/coronavirus-and-inequality/the-governments-secret-ventilator-stockpile-is-nowhere-near-enough-to-fight-the-coronavirus/


So essentially we should give all the reserves to NY and somehow find another 15,000 then expect these ventilators will magically spawn for every other state?

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 29 2020 12:35pm
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Mar 29 2020 12:38pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 29 2020 02:35pm)
Dude i'm using 4th grade math. I revised the infections to 60k once you gave me an updated number, i can revise other parts. You don't need experts to follow through with what i'm doing.

Instead of following twitter talking heads, follow along with me. This is what we have:

https://publicintegrity.org/health/coronavirus-and-inequality/the-governments-secret-ventilator-stockpile-is-nowhere-near-enough-to-fight-the-coronavirus/

So essentially we should give all the reserves to NY and somehow find another 15,000 then expect these ventilators will magically spawn for every other state?


We're just talking past each other.
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Mar 29 2020 12:45pm
It is pretty interesting how this virus is exposing the fundamental flaws in America's social structure. I don't think anything will come of it though. Folks on Reddit seem to think it's creating "class consciousness" and that in a month's time we'll see a "political revolution".
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Mar 29 2020 12:52pm
Quote (Handcuffs @ 29 Mar 2020 19:45)
It is pretty interesting how this virus is exposing the fundamental flaws in America's social structure. I don't think anything will come of it though. Folks on Reddit seem to think it's creating "class consciousness" and that in a month's time we'll see a "political revolution".


Bernie can still win!!!!11
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