Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 29 2020 12:38pm)

Lets just do some very basic research.

2 days ago we had less than 30,000 cases of corona in NYC, currently as of today is it's between 31-32k

Some basic research on corona and hospitalization:



https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/

31,000*.01=310 ventilators

Cuomo said he needs 30,000 ventilators now, Trump said he doesn't believe they need that many.

What we have:



15,000 ventilators in NY currently/.01(need for ventilators)=1.5 million people who could be serviced that get infected.


So in your opinion, do you think New York right now needs 30,000 ventilators given this data? 30,000+15,000/.01=4.5 million

Unless NY explodes to 4.5 million cases fairly soon, we would have a colossal mismanagement of a critical resource. What do you think?

Quote (ofthevoid @ 29 Mar 2020 19:06)

Fair enough.

One thing i'll point out though is both Trump and the doctor said i believe, meaning it's opinion. Like if i say i think the Dow is going to 26,000 by end of year and it only goes to 24,000 does that make me a liar?

Quote (Bazi @ Mar 29 2020 01:49pm)

NY, Michigan , I’m sure other states needed ventilators yesterday, not just now.

Regardless of what you’re hearing on the news, there are people presently dying waiting for a ventilator to open up.

In Michigan, at my training hospital where I’m in constant communication with, they have already begun split vent protocols (completely novel approach) with predictably minimal success

Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 29 2020 01:38pm)

Lets just do some very basic research.

2 days ago we had less than 30,000 cases of corona in NYC, currently as of today is it's between 31-32k

Some basic research on corona and hospitalization:



https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/

31,000*.01=310 ventilators

Cuomo said he needs 30,000 ventilators now, Trump said he doesn't believe they need that many.

What we have:



15,000 ventilators in NY currently/.01(need for ventilators)=1.5 million people who could be serviced that get infected.


So in your opinion, do you think New York right now needs 30,000 ventilators given this data? 30,000+15,000/.01=4.5 million

Unless NY explodes to 4.5 million cases fairly soon, we would have a colossal mismanagement of a critical resource. What do you think?

Quote (fender @ Mar 29 2020 01:50pm)

when the cult leader is so incredibly incompetent that even his most loyal followers can't find any excuses for his despicable behaviour anymore, the most deplorable amongst them resort to just making up some racist shit about obama (who actually has a pretty impressive track record dealing with crisis situations).



can you really not distinguish between an educated and informed guess, a reasonable, fact-based estimate on the one side, and a claim that is obviously motivated by petty personal reasons, based on no rational analysis or argument?

doesn't the whole 'well, the stupid, dangerous, and cynical shit he says is, despite its real world implications, not so bad - because he said "i believe", so it's just a personal opinion (that the president of the nation expressed on national tv), and everyone is entitled to that' excuse not get old at some point?

Quote (IceMage @ Mar 29 2020 01:54pm)

I think, why do people believe we shouldn't trust expert opinion? If Cuomo's advisers are telling him that New York needs 30-40k ventilators, and the top expert on Trump's team agrees with that assessment, why would any reasonable person second-guess that?

Not to mention, some of your information is wrong. Cuomo needs 30-40k for New York as a whole. Cases are up to 59k in the state. I don't have the knowledge or expertise to second-guess experts. I'm not dumb enough to believe I do.

Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 29 2020 07:59pm)

60k cases*.01=600 ventilators; We currently have 15,000 ventilators.

We would need the 60 thousand cases to go up by a factor of 75 to need the 45,000 ventilators.

Twitter opinions to me are just that. Numbers are much easier to work with to create meaningful decisions. Where do you think i'm getting something wrong?

Quote (IceMage @ Mar 29 2020 01:54pm)

I think, why do people believe we shouldn't trust expert opinion? If Cuomo's advisers are telling him that New York needs 30-40k ventilators, and the top expert on Trump's team agrees with that assessment, why would any reasonable person second-guess that?

Not to mention, some of your information is wrong. Cuomo needs 30-40k for New York as a whole. Cases are up to 59k in the state. I don't have the knowledge or expertise to second-guess experts. I'm not dumb enough to believe I do.

Quote (balrog66 @ Mar 29 2020 02:02pm)

Where do you get the 0.01 factor from?