Quote (Goomshill @ Jan 23 2018 05:54pm)
"political uncertainty"
They had 8 years of Obama. The economy flatlined for over the last year. It then magically exploded the minute Trump was elected.
Its a preposterous level of mental contortion to try to chalk it up to artificial dampening of the election or Obama policies or whatever else when every credible economist regardless of their bias already admits that it was obviously a result of markets being driven by Trump ahead of the fact. People didn't want to invest under Obama/Clinton because they had no good prospects for the economy surging any time soon. If anything it was the election with the most certainty in decades, where everyone just assumed Clinton was going to win and planned accordingly. The economy got the surprise news of incoming deregulation, tax cuts, stimulus, trade balance, etc and reacted accordingly. Nobody had to sit and wait until Trump finally passed it or it went into effect
If you look at the graph it does what you see all the time. When there's a dip or stagnation it quickly picks back up to where the curve would have been without that dip/stagnation and continues. You even see it with the most damaging drops like the 2008 crash.
Even the most certain elections add to uncertainty.
I really don't think the promise of deregulation and tax cuts added that much to the growth, the economy was likely to keep growing post-election no matter who won. There is a small amount you can see of extra "above the line" growth post-trump that can be attributed to this though, but the surge isn't due to Republicans so much as the economy doing what it always does after a dip or stall.