Quote (IceMage @ Mar 29 2020 01:23pm)
Fauci is the expert here and he seems to agree with whatever experts are informing Cuomo. Trump goes on Hannity and says they don't need that many. What is that informed by? Is he just baselessly speculating because he wishes the virus weren't a serious problem and he doesn't want to be responsible for getting NY ventilators?
What's worse, overpreparing and having excess supply after this is over or underpreparing and having many more people die?
Lets just do some very basic research.
2 days ago we had less than 30,000 cases of corona in NYC, currently as of today is it's between 31-32k
Some basic research on corona and hospitalization:
Quote
the model then uses the best current estimates of how long someone is infectious (14 days); how many new cases each infected person causes (called the effective reproduction number, it’s about 2.5); the percentage of Covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized (5%, reflecting the fact that most people have only mild or moderate illness); the percentage who need to be in an ICU (2%) or on a ventilator (1%); and the length of stay for each of these three.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/31,000*.01=310 ventilators
Cuomo said he
needs 30,000 ventilators now, Trump said he doesn't
believe they need that many.
What we have:
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New York state already had 4,000 in the system and has since purchased 7,000 on the private market. Another 4,000 will come from federal sources, the governor said earlier this week.
15,000 ventilators in NY currently/.01(need for ventilators)=1.5 million people who could be serviced that get infected.
So in your opinion, do you think New York right now needs 30,000 ventilators given this data? 30,000+15,000/.01=4.5 million
Unless NY explodes to 4.5 million cases fairly soon, we would have a colossal mismanagement of a critical resource. What do you think?