Yes, I can agree with most of that. The thing I'm wondering though is if a populist platform/message, as opposed to a populist or crude tone, will have the same positive effect in the Rust Belt, and the same off-putting effect in upscale suburbs.



The one thing I'm not sure I can agree on is that Trump's lack of a focus on populism is what allowed Biden to win back the Rust Belt this time around.

Back in 2016, Clinton won nationally by 2.1%, while Trump won the tipping point states of WI and PA by 0.7%, so they were R+2.8 states that year. When everything is said and done, Biden will have won the 2020 election by around 5% nationally, and won the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.6%, and PA probably by around 1%. So actually, WI and PA will end up being R+4.4 and R+4 states, respectively. The trend of the Rust Belt toward Trump continued, it's just that Biden won the overall election by a big enough margin that he had enough cushion to withstand this continuing trend of the Rust Belt away from Democrats.

Looking at the demographics and the urban/suburban/rural split of the population, I think that Wisconsin will go the way of Missouri, Iowa and Ohio and become a reliably red state in any year in which Republicans are remotely competitive. I'm less sure about Pennsylvania. Another factor to keep in mind with regard to the Rust Belt is that Biden was a moderate(-ish), old white man. I think it's pretty clear that Democratic presidential candidates will be women and/or PoC going forward, because the party just cares so damn much about this kind of stuff. I do not think that Kamala Harris, for instance, would have won WI and PA this year.

But then again, like I said, I think Georgia is a goner for the GOP because of the huge growth of its black and asian population. Even if the white suburbs snap back to the GOP somewhat, the black growth will eat that up easily in 1-2 cycles. And Arizona, as this election has shown, cannot be taken for granted anymore by the GOP.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 8 2020 11:02am

You can reduce deficits as a % of GDP

I knew you were going to say that but 2% is really enough as the European countries you’re referring to spend way less than that (except the UK which spends 2%)

Social security accounts for 60% of spending. It is the only thing that matters.

It will be tied to budget %, inflated out of existence, or have the age increased.

oh christ why does that make me smile

To be fair, the Senate GOP did block another round of stimulus, and they even did so although it would have helped them politically. (But that was due to their incompetence rather than out of principle.)



But yeah... the GOP is just so much better at handling the deficit - everytime one of their own is in the White House, the deficit is no problem anymore.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 8 2020 11:57am

You have to wonder whether they thought Trump was going to lose either way, so chose to build some credibility on fiscal issues.

Yes, I wondered about the same thing. But it doesnt really make sense since there were a lot of vulnerable Republican incumbents this year. Joni Ernst, Susan Collins, Steve Daines, Lindsey Graham, Thom Tillis, Martha McSally, Cory Gardner, David Perdue, Kelly Loeffler - they all were not in a position to vote down a popular policy to uphold their principles.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 8 2020 12:32pm

Maybe? Rick Santorum didn't perform half badly in the early 2012 primaries but I think he was just the last flavor of the week to oppose Romney.

I think Ohio and Iowa are now reliably red states and the Dems should focus on states that have large enough suburbs to combat the rural/exurban states. Florida will continue to be competitive I think regardless of demographics because Florida is Florida.

Georgia is trending quicker than NC and a lot of that is due to industry.