trump ran up the deficit which was unpopular among conservatives

biden will run it up even more

we'll have to wait for Pence or sth before it starts going down again

glad that privileged lefty leech user got a 10%, hope it was a 3+ day one for trying to bully people into suicide or self-harm.

a really sad anti-American individual that user ‘mizzouftw’ is

He would be an incumbent, so as long as there isnt something earthshattering like covid he wins easily

Never go full Adderall




I sincerely hope Biden lasts 4 or even 8 years but Cmon, man!

We see how the position ages people so rapidly. clinton, bush, obama, trump

I don't think it's physically possible for Biden to age past his current state

This post was edited by proccy on Nov 8 2020 09:37am

I agree that Biden will probably not run in 2024, but I'm not so sure that it will be a slam dunk for Republicans. It is very much an open question if they can staunch the bleeding in the suburbs and with female voters while at the same time keeping the energy and the gains with WWC voters.

Trump evoked a voter swap which didnt expand the Republican coalition, but made it more efficiently distributed in the EC and the Senate. Chances are that a candidate like Nikki Haley would do far better than Trump in the suburbs and with women, but would she have the appeal to Rust Belt voters to put MI/WI/PA in play again like Trump did?

Because if that's not the case, then their path to the presidency keeps being tough. Regaining GA and (potentially, if Trump loses it) AZ will not be enough.
More generally speaking, the demographic trends in GA are absolutely atrocious for the GOP. If that state is permanently gone, similar to what happened in CO and VA, then the GOP is in deep deep trouble.

No because the optics are going to be really bad. Biden right now is the oldest ever president inaugurated at 77. The oldest previously was Trump at 70.

If republicans run someone in their 50s-60s the optics are going to look so fucking bad for the democrats who have a 81 year old tired white guy. Democrat nominees need to trend younger and more diverse. If republicans are smart and find a Latino or a woman to run, it's going to be a massacre.

not if the new support gained from Trump decides to go back to not voting or voting 3rd party. it will be interesting to see the gop go back into swamp mode with the dems and how much that ticks off the new “gop” voters from 2016 and 2020

similarly though with no potential ‘evil boogeyman’ on the ticket in 2024 what rallies the dems? they have lusted with hatred as their driver for the last two elections.

Republicans can absolutely take the rust belt again, but they have to campaign the way Trump did in 2016 and didn't do in 2020.

Where he talks about jobs, corrupt establishment, etc. etc.

Something I now realize was totally intentional is that he tried to paint Biden as a communist so he could get a stronger turnout with Hispanics in Florida, and that was obviously successful, but the thing is that seemed to be at the expense of his message in 2016 talking about bringing back coal jobs and talking to the working man and that let Biden take back the rust belt.

So if somebody runs on the same message Trump did in 2016 which was massively popular, and really similar to Bernie's message in that it directly spoke to the concerns of the working class, then the rust belt is definitely in play. But if they don't then the rust belt will probably default to Democrats and election will be impossible.

The deficit spending should correlate with business cycles, i.e. very high post-recession and then decrease while the economy is doing better. Trump had 4 years where he should have been reducing deficit spending and he didn't, which is significant because there is no way you can do it during or just after the coronavirus pandemic.

3.4% is high. To put that into context, 2% of GDP is a healthy military budget and 1-2% is what most developed nations spend. The NATO target is 2%.

It's extremely difficult to magically reduce deficits when there are systems in place that basically make sure that it will continue to go up on the spending side. Systematic pay raises for government workers, more people on social security because population growth, higher medical costs due to new drugs and so on. Yes he made it worse by lowering taxes therefore the equation became even more lopsided. How did you expect him fix the deficit? Raise taxes? Cut or limit Medicare/Medicaid coverage?

Military spending is low hanging fruit. The reason why NATO can get away with spending 1-2% is because for decades the US essentially guaranteed protection no matter what. What do you think military spending would have been as a % of GDP for Europe if the US didn't essentially stay in Europe post WW2? France, England, Germany would have been spending way more that's pretty much a fact. US protection allowed European countries to externalize these cost so it's nonsensical to look and compare the two without considering this historical reality.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Nov 8 2020 10:48am