Quote (inkanddagger @ 14 Nov 2018 17:58)
Sinema is official in AZ now. If the Florida recount goes to Nelson, the GOP will have picked up zero seats in the friendliest year they're likely to have for a decade.
Trump got BTFO.
even if nelson wins, which is HIGHLY unlikely as things stand right now, then it would still be one pickup for republicans, not zero. the far more likely scenario is R+2, and keep in mind that democrats in 2020 will have to hold on to a senate seat in Alabama against somone who is not Doug Jones. good luck with that.
so the current senate will most likely end up 53-47 for Republicans, and factoring in Alabama, the democrats will have to win 4 seats plus the WH, or 5 seats. when I look at the 2020 senate map, I dont see where they would pick those up. Collins in Maine, Gardner in Colorado, and perhaps the open seat race in Arizona - those are in reach for democrats. but they are not gonna win texas against an incumbent who is not ted cruz, i.e. the most unlikeable politician in all of congress, and they're not gonna win iowa in a year with trump at the top of the ticket. where do they want to win the fourth seat?
there's a good chance that the GOP holds the senate in 2020, even in scenarios where Trump gets defeated.
chances are high that the democrats wont regain unified control of federal politics before 2024.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 14 2018 11:09am